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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

We have heard the call for letting the young become exposed while protecting the vulnerable so that the population can develop herd immunity. This study suggests that protecting the vulnerable from infections within college populations is easier said than done. SARS-CoV-2 sequencing reveals rapid transmission from college student clusters resulting in morbidity and deaths in vulnerable populations doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.12.20210294 The researchers collected samples from infected students and members of the community during the return of studies to college and the rising infection rate of COVID. The researchers then sequenced the viruses in these samples and found that students got sick, spread the infection to the greater community, eventually infection two care homes leading to deaths; and the infections were from the same genetic strain of SARS-CoV-2 that started in the student population. We detected these student-amplified infection clusters as part of a 21-county surveillance program in the Gundersen Healthcare System’s service area. Because this program was not student focused, we were collecting and sequencing other community cases in parallel. This allowed us to quickly detect the overspill from the college-age population in older adults. While these findings were consistent with public health expectations about risk to older population in settings of wide community spread and with epidemiological studies showing a statistical association in which case increases in young adults are typically followed by cases among older adults (12), our ability to genetically link these groups of cases provides direct evidence of transmission between these different age groups. Of particular concern, was the rapid transmission of one of these SARS-CoV-2 substrains into two skilled nursing facilities, causing sustained outbreaks with two fatalities so far. Our first case of what we came to call the “College B” cluster was collected on 8/27/20, a time when cases were slowly but steadily rising (Figure 1). The inflection point on the curve when cases began to rise more rapidly was on 9/10/20 (Figure 1) and the first skilled nursing facility patient specimen associated with this cluster was detected on 9/14/20. Here is an analysis of increasing infection rates in communities after the start of in-person college classes. Return to University Campuses Associated with 9% Increase in New COVID-19 Case Rate We find a significant surge of 9% in new cases in a 21-day time frame in college counties, a finding consistent across U.S. Census divisions. These results suggest the need for institutions of higher education and the communities where these institutions reside work together quickly and effectively to mitigate viral transmission and to prevent overwhelming local healthcare infrastructure in college counties.
BCSnob 10/20/20 08:06am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

COVID infection rates increase exponentially. Most data is presented with the rates plotted linearly vs linear time axis. In this study, the reported infection rate, hospitalization rate, and death rate were plotted on a log2 y-axis (to remove the exponential factor) vs a linear time axis. The rates were now linear with time with slope changes (exponential rate changes) which were then correlated with lockdowns, school closings, bar closings, and mask mandates and then the removal of these mandates. There were slope decreases (reduction in rates) with the addition of these health orders and slope increases with the removal of these orders. There were delays between the orders and the change in slopes which correlated well with expected times from exposure to infection, infection to hospitalization (when required) and hospitalization to death (when it occurred). This analysis found:… school closings dropped infection rates in half, lockdowns dropped the rates 3 to 4 fold, and other actions (such as closing bars and mandating masks) brought the rates even further down. Strong impact of closing schools, closing bars and wearing masks during the Covid-19 pandemic: results from a simple and revealing analysis doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202457 Figures 1-4 show that rates of new daily hospitalizations and new deaths seem to parallel those of new cases, with lag times of about three days to a week for hospitalizations, and a further lag of 3 - 10 days for deaths. Although improvements in medical care may start to change this picture, it currently appears that a fairly constant proportion of infected people will become ill and die.
BCSnob 10/20/20 07:50am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

I checked the WHO recommendations for the 2020/2021 flu vaccine and it includes flu A. The WHO recommends that quadrivalent vaccines for use in the 2020–2021 northern hemisphere influenza sea- son contain the following: Egg-based Vaccines ? an A/Guangdong-Maonan/SWL1536/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus; ? an A/Hong Kong/2671/2019 (H3N2)-like virus; ? a B/Washington/02/2019 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus; and ?a B/Phuket/3073/2013 (B/Yamagata lineage)-like virus. Cell- or recombinant-based Vaccines ? an A/Hawaii/70/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus; ? an A/Hong Kong/45/2019 (H3N2)-like virus; ? a B/Washington/02/2019 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus; and ?a B/Phuket/3073/2013 (B/Yamagata lineage)-like virus. The WHO recommends that trivalent influenza vaccines for use in the 2020–2021 northern hemisphere influenza season contain the following: Egg-based Vaccines ? an A/Guangdong-Maonan/SWL1536/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus; ? an A/Hong Kong/2671/2019 (H3N2)-like virus; and ?a B/Washington/02/2019 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus. Cell- or recombinant-based Vaccines ? an A/Hawaii/70/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus; ? an A/Hong Kong/45/2019 (H3N2)-like virus; and ?a B/Washington/02/2019 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus. Recommended composition of influenza virus vaccines for use in the 2020–2021 northern hemisphere influenza season Source: WHO
BCSnob 10/20/20 03:47am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

Did you get your flu vaccine this year? Co-infection of influenza A virus enhances SARS-CoV-2 infectivity doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.14.335893 Abstract The upcoming flu season in the northern hemisphere merging with the current COVID-19 pandemic raises a potentially severe threat to public health. Through experimental co-infection of IAV with either pseudotyped or SARS-CoV-2 live virus, we found that IAV pre-infection significantly promoted the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 in a broad range of cell types. Remarkably, increased SARS-CoV-2 viral load and more severe lung damage were observed in mice co-infected with IAV in vivo. Moreover, such enhancement of SARS-CoV-2 infectivity was not seen with several other viruses probably due to a unique IAV (influenza A virus) segment as an inducer to elevate ACE2 expression. This study illustrates that IAV has a special nature to aggravate SARS-CoV-2 infection, and prevention of IAV is of great significance during the COVID-19 pandemic.
BCSnob 10/19/20 02:24pm Around the Campfire
RE: Halloween Or Not

Nothing different this year; we’ve not had trick or treaters in the 10 years we’ve lived here.
BCSnob 10/18/20 07:27pm Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

Still waiting on published data (as opposed to opinion) showing the lack of effectiveness of surgical masks at preventing the spread of covid.
BCSnob 09/25/20 11:41am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

There is an MD in Australia that says the earth is flat; do you choose to believe him?
BCSnob 09/25/20 11:28am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

Notice of Retraction: Effectiveness of Surgical and Cotton Masks in Blocking SARS-CoV-2 Annals of Internal Medicine, 2020 According to recommendations by the editors of Annals of Internal Medicine, we are retracting our article, “Effectiveness of Surgical and Cotton Masks in Blocking SARS-CoV-2. A Controlled Comparison in 4 Patients,” which was published at Annals.org on 6 April 2020 (1). We had not fully recognized the concept of limit of detection (LOD) of the in-house reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction used in the study (2.63 log copies/mL), and we regret our failure to express the values below LOD as “
BCSnob 09/25/20 11:26am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

I agree with the Chief Science officer that it looks like sloppy science to me. Please provide peer reviewed published reports indicating the false positive rates for the RT-PCR tests. In other words fact check what someone says even when it supports your preconceived bias (which is what science does). This is no different than accepting vape particles are much bigger than droplets that carry viruses (which is incorrect) since it supports what you want to be the truth.
BCSnob 09/25/20 11:02am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

For what it is worth, the mutation rates for influenza, measles, and mumps are all about the same. The mutation rate clearly does not correlate with how long a vaccine will be effective for the circulating virus strain. For measles and mumps the vaccines (or infection) provide lifetime immunity. For the influenza viruses, the immunity is much shorter because the mutations were in functionally relative locations.
BCSnob 09/25/20 10:10am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

Here is a peer review study about gaiters from Duke This is a peer review study that shows gaiters don't even work but are in fact, according to this peer review study more dangerous to wear. I choose to believe peer review studies like this one. Instead of reading what a Wash Post reporter wrote about this study let’s go read what the Duke researchers published. Low-cost measurement of face mask efficacy for filtering expelled droplets during speech This is a good quote showing the effectiveness of some cloth masks and a surgical mask at blocking emitted droplets from speech. In the study (unlike the video) the performance of each mask was compared to not wearing a mask. Unlike the video where the vapor was blown out; the study measured droplets emitted during speech. For the control trial (green curve), the five distinct peaks correspond to the five repetitions of the operator speaking. In the case of speaking through a mask, there is a physical barrier, which results in a reduction of transmitted droplets and a significant delay between speaking and detecting particles. In effect, the mask acts as a temporal low-pass filter, smoothens the droplet rate over time, and reduces the overall transmission. For the bandana (red curve), the droplet rate is merely reduced by a factor of 2, and the repetitions of the speech are still noticeable. The effect of the cotton mask (orange curve) is much stronger. The speech pattern is no longer recognizable, and most of the droplets, compared to the control trial, are removed. The curve for the surgical mask is not visible on this scale. This is a link to figures of their data comparing the performance of the masks tested relative to no mask. Data Figure; there is a picture in the linked article showing all the masks tested.
BCSnob 09/24/20 09:52am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

No MD, just a lowly PhD working as a research scientist at a biotech company that is part of Operation Warp Speed (making covid antibody tests being recommended by NIAID for the phase III vaccine trials). What’s your expertise to be able to judge the non peer reviewed YT video? I am aware of the differences in effectiveness of face coverings. If you’d bother reading the linked articles to assessed effectiveness you’ll find this has been discussed. I’m also aware that masks with exhaust valves offer little to no protection to those around the wearer. My employer’s mask policy is based upon the most up to date info on effectiveness of masks which is why we are not allowed to use gaiters, bandannas, and masks with exhaust valves.
BCSnob 09/24/20 07:36am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

Someone could make a analogous video on how seat belts don’t work; showing the injuries to belt wearers after accidents. It doesn’t prove seat belt use (or mask use) doesn’t reduce injuries and deaths. It only demonstrates that safety devices and safety measures are not binary in effectiveness. What the vape/mask video didn’t have was the control; how much vapor would be blown at the camera when not wearing a mask (analogous to talking face to face with and without a mask).
BCSnob 09/24/20 07:01am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

This video shows how a mask handles a vape aerosol (many, many, many, many magnitudes larger than a CV virus or the water vapor it can hitch hike on). I choose to believe this peer reviewed published study on the size of vape aerosol particle size (0.25-0.45 micrometer) over what is said in a YouTube video. Electronic cigarette aerosol particle size distribution measurements This size range is not larger the the droplets that carry exhaled viruses. It doesn’t take much effort to fact check claims. For reference aerosol particles are generally considered to be less than 5 micrometers while exhaled droplets are larger than 5 micrometers. Particle sizes of infectious aerosols: implications for infection control I recommended Google Scholar for finding (or “fact checking”) science information over many other sources including YouTube. The motto on google scholar is “ Stand on the shoulders of giants”.
BCSnob 09/24/20 05:06am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

If the AstraZeneca phase 3 vaccine trial in the USA was put on hold, why does the NIH page for this trial list: Recruitment Status : Not yet recruiting First Posted : August 18, 2020 Last Update Posted : August 18, 2020 ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04516746
BCSnob 09/23/20 01:00pm Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

This article indicates surgical masks protect against the spread covid in aerosols. Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks Nature Medicine volume 26, pages676–680(2020) Abstract We identified seasonal human coronaviruses, influenza viruses and rhinoviruses in exhaled breath and coughs of children and adults with acute respiratory illness. Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols, with a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RNA in respiratory droplets. Our results indicate that surgical face masks could prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza viruses from symptomatic individuals. This pre-print posted today has a good discussion on the effectiveness of face masks in decreasing the spread of covid (be it by filtering exhaled virus or filtering inhaled virus. The studies on the effectiveness of facemasks were for covid, be it transmitted by droplets or in aerosols. Many studies have reported that facial masks substantially reduce the infection risk, which applies to disposable surgical masks as well as reusable cloth masks (Chu et al., 2020; Esposito et al., 2020; Fischer et al., 2020; Howard et al., 2020; Leung et al., 2020; MacIntyre and Chughtai, 2020). Mueller et al. (2020) found that, when worn as designed, surgical and cloth masks have filtration efficiencies of 53–75% and 28–90%, respectively. Mask wearing works in two ways, by preventing infected subjects from spreading droplets and aerosols, and by limiting exposure through inhalation. Verma et al. (2020) report that homemade masks with multiple fabric layers effectively reduce droplet dispersal. Drewnick et al. (2020) investigated many materials, and measured a large range of filtration efficiencies, from about 10% to 100%. Materials with small leak areas, e.g. 1–2%, were shown to have substantially reduced efficiency. By the stacking of a number of fabric layers, homemade masks appeared to achieve good filtration efficiencies of about 50 80% for 0.5–10 ?m particles, and 30–60% for 30–250 nm particles. These results agree with Shakya et al. (2017), and confirm that surgical masks are generally more efficient than homemade cloth products (Davies et al., 2013). The filtering efficiency of medical and non-medical masks is typically exceeded by N95 (filter 95% of the particles), FFP2 (filter ?94%) and FFP3 (?99%) respirators, which are recommended for health-care workers (Chu et al. 2020; Howard et at., 2020). The universal, public wearing of masks (not respirators) by at least 80% of the population was shown to be particularly effective in reducing the spreading of COVID-19 (De Kai et al., 2020). The effectiveness of using face masks by the general population obviously increases with their filter efficiency, but even if it is low, the benefits are apparent (Worby and Chang, 2020). By studying policies in different countries, De Kai et al. (2020) found a strong correlation between mask wearing and both daily and peak growth reduction of COVID-19, with successful application in countries such as China, South Korea and Japan, where this practice is ubiquitous. Surgical masks are relatively efficient in this respect, but also home-made cloth masks can contribute, albeit with lower efficiency (Fischer et al., 2020). Drewnick et al. (2020) reported that avoiding leaks in masks is particularly important to have good overall efficacy. When masks with a sufficient number of layers of good material (especially fluffy textiles) and with proper fit are used, there could be substantial inhalation protection. The masks reduce SARS-CoV-2 emissions in both droplets and aerosol particles. At emission, the particles are initially wet (small droplets), likely remaining so under the mask. Source: Aerosol transmission of COVID-19 and infection risk in indoor environments doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.22.20199489
BCSnob 09/22/20 11:10am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

No really good way to tell why Fauci flip flopped on the mask issue either? Sure there is; over months science increased our understanding of how this virus spreads and then there were updates to recommended mask use. I'm sorry if this information is raining on your storyline; have some more cool-aid and you'll feel better.
BCSnob 09/22/20 10:45am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

Here is another study showing there has been no difference in viral loads between three age groups: less than 5 years, 5-17 years, and older than 17 years. The study examined data from 5,544 positive covid tests in patients from CA tested in two different labs.Laboratory A serves the UC San Francisco health care system, as well as local clinics and also 42 provides tests to the county health departments in 26 California counties. Laboratory B serves 43 principally the UC Davis health care system and partner clinics/hospitals centered in Sacramento, CA. The viral loads were determined in all the samples. and no significant difference in load was found between these age groups. The youngest did not have a higher viral load than the other age groups. Source: Nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV2 viral loads in young children do not differ significantly from those in older children and adults doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.17.20192245
BCSnob 09/22/20 10:33am Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

Missteps by the scientists or editorial changes imposed by political appointees? No way for the public to know for certain.
BCSnob 09/21/20 05:07pm Around the Campfire
RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

I think this is what you’re looking for...., A mechanistic model and therapeutic interventions for COVID-19 involving a RAS-mediated bradykinin storm DOI: 10.7554/eLife.59177
BCSnob 09/21/20 01:27pm Around the Campfire
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