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RE: Exxon lost $20.1Billion - the beginning of the end for oil?
....consumption. Where has it been? Where is it going?
One of the most respected sources analyzing the global energy landscape, is the think-tank RFF. They put out something called the GEO (global energy outlook). In the 25 year period from 1990 to 2015, the Planet's energy consumption increased by just under 200 quadrillion Btu ( qBtu ) of the gross consumption of 550 qBtu. Their forecast from now-ish to 2040 suggests only a modest increase in consumption ( 80 qBtu growth). I've seen unrelated estimates of oil prices climbing very slowly to well over $200 USD per barrel WTI by 2050-ish.
Presently, there are appx ~ 30,000 aircraft (military and civilian) capable of flying in the World today. By appx 2040, the prediction is 65,000 -ish aircraft in the air. Every one of these (and, future) aircraft will run on aviation fuel (a petroleum byproduct). Presently, there are appx 101,000 locomotives operating on Earth at end of 2017. Not all are diesel, but most are. How many steamships and power boats exist and operate on Earth today? Appx 36 million of them, running on diesel or gasoline; steamships alone serving more than 25,000 ports.
Until we figure out how to run jets, turboprops, diesel locomotives, steamships all off nuclear (a few run on electrics already), oil will easily maintain its status as "the World's most prolific single fuel source", probably till at least appx ~~2090. This, of course may be mitigated by what are called ACS (ambitious climate scenarios) calculus.
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silversand
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02/26/21 12:36pm |
Around the Campfire
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RE: Border crossings about to get even worse
The agent wanted me to speed up but I didn't.
.....there is good reason to minimize biological exposure to high energy X-ray.
On edit: partly deleted "DHS' X-ray scanners could be cancer risk to border crossers" here-->
The Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC, of "EPIC v. the NSA" fame) obtained the specifications on the San Ysidro genre of X-ray scanners through an Freedom of Information Act. Look it up. The document is partially redacted, of course. EPIC v. HLS. In 2016, EPIC v. TSA in DC Appeals Court link-->commenced in I believe 2017, on forcing TSA to allow passengers at airports to undergo full body pat-down as an alternative to backscatter AIT walk-through. In Europe, "passengers are given the right to opt out from a control with scanners and be subject to an alternative method of screening". And, further, "In order not to risk jeopardizing citizens' health and safety, only security scanners which do not use X-ray technology are added to the list of authorized methods for passenger screening at EU airports. All other technologies, such as that used for mobiles phones and others, can be used provided that they comply with EU security standards." link-->
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silversand
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02/22/21 07:15am |
RVing in Mexico and South America
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RE: It’s been a good run
Start loosing capacity at 10 years mark, but I used couple of them till 12 years of age.
....my old Maxtanks (AGM) are still in operation at 13 years last year (2020). I suppose replacement will be needed soon.
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silversand
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02/10/21 09:33am |
Truck Campers
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
I wonder how the FDA would deal with:
Using vaccines outside of the EAU (mixing vaccines, not following dose timings, etc)
Providing an EAU for mixing vaccines
Adverse reactions when 2 pharmaceutical companies are involved
....didn't the Hep B "boost" prove to be a successful heterologous endeavor? Also, more recently the Sputnik vaccine uses heterologous boosting.
AstraZeneca's prime boost interval was recently bumped to 3 months. That one is interesting, as it turns out that the efficacy of AstraZeneca's single dose is remarkably high, completely unpredicted.
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silversand
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02/04/21 01:49pm |
Around the Campfire
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
I'm not saying the use of 222nm for sterilization should be avoided; I am suggesting that implementation of this in public spaces should be carefully thought out so as to avoid unintended consequences. A good example of its use might be interior of the HVAC air return ducts.
Agreed. Thank you for the links; I will read through every one of them. Thanks.
Also, halogen, incandescent and fluorescent lighting all give off varying intensities of UV. These are ubiquitous, found in every building and space installed over the past ~90+ years.
Drastic decrease of carbonyl group after the loss of ether in PADC exposed to 222nm UV photons
Radiation Physics and Chemistry Volume 157, April 2019, Pages 60-64
On edit: ....this RPC article was interesting. However, PADC (thermoset plastic used for eye glasses lenses) is an extremely effective UV-C blocker, especially at 254nm to 280nm and lower. It seems to be almost unaffected by UVC (even at 102uJ/cm2 for long duration PADC is quite impressively stable).
....on to next article....
Degradation of Bisphenol A in an Aqueous Solution by a Photo-Fenton-Like Process Using a UV KrCl Excilamp
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(3), 1152
....interesting. Especially in the realms of BPA profusion and toxicity to marine environment!
"Direct UV irradiation without persulfate (direct photolysis) showed a relatively low BPA degradation rate so that it was converted by 84% after 60 min treatment whereas the DOC removal reached only 13% after 4 h of exposure. No degradation was observed in the presence of persulfate without any UV exposure (data not shown)."
....however, without a photoreactor (KrCl excilamp) and persulfate, there was little degradation of BPA bombarded by UVC (at the rate published). This is really bad news for any natural degradation of BPA floating out in the oceans (forget about toxic byproducts cutting loose from degrading BPA out in the marine environment!)....
But I'm still with you vis ongoing research into 222nm as a sterilization agent and negative issues oxidizing the myriad plastics in the sterilization "space"....
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silversand
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02/04/21 08:33am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
It was my understanding that Canada does not have the ability to manufacture a vaccine at the present time and must rely on other countries for the vaccine.
Correct. Montreal has a facility called the Royalmount. It is a Canadian Federal Government facility for experimentation and not a vaccine manufacturing facility, and run by the Canadian National Research Council (NRC). Retrofits are being done to upgrade the facility to vaccine production capability. The Royalmount presently does cell culturing, microbial fermentation, molecular modeling, and antibody production (bioprocesses engineering). And, primarily human health therapeutics (pure) research. So, it made sense to rapidly convert this facility to vaccine manufacturing.
the Royalmount-->
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silversand
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02/04/21 07:41am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
How should 222nm UV light disinfection be employed inside buildings to disinfect while minimizing the damage it will do to the interior building materials never designed to withstand the damage caused by UVC? (UVC degrades polymers/plastics)
....I am unaware of any damage that could occur to polymers and plastics with 222nm continuous-use TLV. The excimer filtered output would be set to FDA threshold limit value (see the link to above Nature research) far below any values that could damage human tissue let alone plastics. In addition, ASDUs (air and surface disinfection units) have been used for years in all manner of environments, continuously, to disinfect all manner of man-made materials, including medical devices.
Can you point to any materials research that demonstrates that excimer-produced far ultraviolet filtered ultra narrow-band 222nm output at 1.2 to 1.7 mJ/cm2 of 222nm light degrades "plastics" or polymerized materials faster than said plastic's natural environmental oxidation?
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silversand
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02/04/21 07:19am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
The science journal, Nature Research in its Scientific Report, shows in its Inactivation of human coronaviruses after exposure to 222 nm light in aerosols infectivity assay results section, that, "The severity of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic warrants the rapid development and deployment of effective countermeasures to reduce indoor person-to-person transmission. We have developed a promising approach using single-wavelength far-UVC light at 222nm generated by filtered excimer lamps, which inactivates airborne viruses without inducing biological damage in exposed human cells and tissue11–18. The approach is based on the biophysically-based principle that far-UVC light, because of its very limited penetration in biological materials... " Read the entire research paper here-->
Why this technology has not been fast-tracked last year into every public facility, government building, and every hospital on Earth is a mystery to me. I know it has been installed into a handful of airports in the USA (and, one in Canada: Vancouver international), and in a handful of hospitals (John Hopkins, being one). The cost to install this is miniscule in comparison to the billions (probably trillions) that will be lost to the economy AND, the millions (tens of millions?) of human lives lost to Covid (and, the flu!) over the next 2 to 5 years.
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silversand
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02/04/21 04:59am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: New Border Regulations
As far as I can tell (searching all Canadian carrier flights with US continental destinations), I can see very few flight cancellations next week. I did see numerous Canadian airlines with rather unusual departures-only FROM Mexican international airports. I suspect that Canadian airlines are flying to Mexico (nearly) empty, and loading up with repatriating Canadians IN Mexico.
....I'm following all passenger flights World-wide, real-time, and focusing on incoming/outbound flights from Canada/USA/Latin America. Anyone in Canada can actually jump onto ANY US air carrier departing from any Canadian international airport, and with one hop, get to any Canadian sun destination, no problem. Also, the "reported" $2000+ CAD cost to returning Canadians (and virtually anyone coming into the country by air) can vary, depending on how rapidly the Canadian airport-given PCR test turn around would be-- following reports now (ie. if the traveler gets their results showing negative in 3~5 hours, the 3 days in a Federal -appointed "quarantine hotel" would be zero days, and proceed to home under a 14-day quarantine). PCR tests given at US airports vary from ~$120 to ~$150 USD approximately. So, deducing, the cost for a Canadian airport PCR test could be in the ~~ $300 CAD range (to be confirmed).
To be clear: I'm not promoting Canadian non-discretionary travel by air. I believe that all non-discretionary air travel World-wide should be halted immediately till a re-evaluation period in early summer. Partial geographical air flight bans don't work, and are a miserable failure; too many ways to "burn Rome" and get around measures
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silversand
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02/02/21 08:09am |
Snowbirds
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RE: New Border Regulations
I couldn’t find anything mentioning canceling flights to the US
...this would be US Virgin islands and Puerto Rico. Considered the Caribbean.
As far as I can tell (searching all Canadian carrier flights with US continental destinations), I can see very few flight cancellations next week. I did see numerous Canadian airlines with rather unusual departures-only FROM Mexican international airports. I suspect that Canadian airlines are flying to Mexico (nearly) empty, and loading up with repatriating Canadians IN Mexico.
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silversand
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01/31/21 11:27am |
Snowbirds
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RE: New Border Regulations
....if anyone here from Canada is RVing and needs to get back by airline, you better do it quickly. The Canadian Feds just announced this morning that all flights in/out of "sun destinations" (this includes Mexico, the US the Caribbean, all of Latin America) are halted (read: cancelled) from now (today) till the last day of April. The only flights leaving (and returning) now are "repatriation" flights.
Also, EVERYONE entering Canada: mandatory quarantine in a Federal Government-designated hotel for 3 days till their mandatory PCR (yes, PCR) results done at the 4 or 5 airport entry customs facilities are confirmed. The cost of these 3 days is $2000+ CAD and is to be borne solely by the returning traveler. After a neg. test, the traveler will undergo mandatory quarantine at home, under heavy surveillance. IF the PCR results come back "positive", the "person(s)" are to be delivered by the Feds to a special Federal Quarantine Facility, till they test negative.
More later....
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silversand
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01/29/21 10:58am |
Snowbirds
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
This article is dated January 15, 2021. Plans are underway to manufacture the vaccine in the northern Mexican state of Nuevo Leon.
OK. There are two facets here: Russia selling their Sputnik vaccine doses....the other is manufacturing it. In my mind, unless that State has the manufacturing facilities already up and running (??), it will take a year of more to set up a vaccine manufacturing plant there.
Standing by to see how many Sputnik vaccines are scheduled to be delivered.....and when.
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silversand
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01/26/21 09:41am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
.....hmmm. This is very interesting.
AstraZeneca's expected production and supply to the EU (Europe) has been severely rolled-back (something like 60 million doses in the coming quarter) due to that pesky key manufacturing ingredient shortfall. This does not affect Moderna nor Pfizer vaccines
Because of the European Union's Commission on vaccine approval/supply's worries that the EU will experience severe AstraZeneca shortfalls, the Commission will be exclusively taking the export decision to curtail export abroad of ALL vaccines manufactured in the EU 27 member States (ie. to Canada and other nations not EU 27 members). So, in effect, the EU will levy export controls on ALL vaccines produced by the EU 27 (remember: this does not include the UK). This European vaccine war does not affect the US supply at all
PharmaForum:
Dateline: Jan 26th
here-->
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silversand
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01/26/21 09:18am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
Canadians:
....I just finished listening to, 3 minutes ago a live Q & A with Canadian Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland.
Q: ....why is Canada not receiving vaccines as the 16 countries are vaccinating hundreds of thousands a day ?
A: ....we are competing with extreme competition among EU countries that produce vaccines and are nationalizing production (particularly Pfizer European production).
The 4 questions asked as to why Canada is in 17th place among the World's top vaccinating countries was answered by a deafening pregnant pause.
Reading between the lines: Canada will not be receiving any vaccines but a microscopic trickle before at the very earliest, April. But more likely, the end of this year. Virtually zero vaccine. IF Canada had a national plan to manufacture vaccine here in tis country (as a National Security requirement), we would not be in LAST PLACE begging the G20 for scraps.
I'm absolutely livid after listening to this this morning.
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silversand
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01/26/21 07:41am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: New Border Regulations
Not familiar with Canadian Law, but now I'm reading that your Rights as Canadians may be "temporarily" suspended.
.....we hope not, but this could happen here....for some "temporary period" the length of yet to be announced.
The Emergencies Act (as established in/from forward from 1988 in Canada) has never been invoked. It was threatened to be invoked at the beginning of "the pandemic" back in March-ish, but the PM (Trudeau) never did it.
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silversand
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01/25/21 09:29am |
Snowbirds
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RE: New Border Regulations
Can you imagine the chaos at Ont./Michigan crossings. I do not think the US/Can.land borders will open for non essential crossings until 2022.
.....sounds reasonable. At the present projected rate of vaccination (and remember, there is virtually no vaccine flowing into Canada presently), say at the rate of 1 million doses per week into Canada divided by the percentage of Canadians over the age of 16 (appx 85% of 38 million) = we need double-doses for 32,300,000 people (64,640,000 doses). At a million doses of vaccine per week in Canada, that's 32.3 weeks to accomplish the 1st dose nation wide (226.1 days) or 7.54 months! Just accomplish the 1st dose by sometime in September. Add another 3 or 4 months to that to get significant vaccinated 2nd dosees....brings us to maybe end of January of 2022. But we all know, the vaccination rollout will take much, much longer. And, vaccination passports will be needed to do ANY travel out of the country.
Research is showing that people who had Covid at the beginning of the "pandemic" back in March, April, May, will need to be vaccinated right now to avoid getting Covid again, because their "raw acquisition of Covid" only gives them ~80 to 83% ever-decreasing efficacy against re-infection = an ever-decreasing level of natural protection over time. In effect, we (well, say Canada) will never be "done" with vaccinating, even 3 or 4 years from now.
Some kind of re-vaccination protocol between the US and Canada (lets use as an example) will need to be agreed upon before the land borders (and likely all non-discretional flights) ever resume once again.
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silversand
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01/25/21 09:22am |
Snowbirds
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RE: New Border Regulations
Any Canadian thinking of traveling outside the country should put those plans on hold. There are so many new rules and more to come...
....boy, that is the understatement of the century :B
If any Canadians get a chance, read the Canada Emergencies Act (the EA replaces the War Measures Act; the EA assented to in 1988).
The Canadian Federal government will have supranational powers over every Canadian and over every Canadian Charter law. This means that all and every Canadian right(s) are suspended temporarily. Here it is: the EA-->
If you are outside Canada for any reason(s) but essential service, military or Federal government business, ya better get home now, or you better have financial means to live abroad for the next 2, 3, 4 or 5+ months. This may mean that when your existing travel health insurance expires when you are abroad, good luck acquiring any extension.
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silversand
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01/25/21 08:29am |
Snowbirds
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
Anyone hear from MexicoWanderer???
News on AstraZeneca production in Mexico and Brazil:
Its a full stop. A critical ingredient only available from China is now not available ( see SitRep (situational report) at Dr John Campbell's broadcast at 25:06 yesterday here--> )
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silversand
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01/25/21 07:27am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: Albany NY to Newport, VT
Looked at the route 7 and looked good to me, I am not an Interstate people if I don't have use one. Can you tell me about this road, is it hilly & many curves?
....we have been driving 7 once or twice a year for the past 40+ years...it is winding (curvy) and hilly, but not excessively mountainous. Lots of stop-and-go. Very slow going. If you encounter construction (in summer), the occasional lineups could be a real PITA. If you want to sight-see, great. If you want time-savings, shoot right over to I-91 using the I-90 just south of Albany.....the 91 will take you practically right into Newport, VT all the way from New Haven, Hartford, or Springfield...very light traffic and great scenery north of Claremont/Lebanon on the 91 all the way to the Canadian border (Newport is practically on the Canadian border). There are campgrounds all along the I-91 from Northampton (two KOAs) all the way to Newport (Tree Corners campground a couple of miles from Newport has no less that 2 heated swimming pools, at site wi-fi and 50 amp service for very big rigs). Super restaurant in Newport called East Side Pub. I've been eating at that restaurant since it was called "The Landing", way back in the early '70s.
On edit: ....the alternative, is to drive the I-87 bypass around Albany (we do this twice a year, every year for the past 8 years) not much traffic after 9:30 AM and before 4 PM. Continue on the I-87 almost right to the Canadian border (almost no traffic/ever diminishing traffic north-bound after Saratoga Springs/Lake George), then take the Route 11 at Champlain, NY through Rouses Point, then, Route 2 across the bridge to the "Islands", and continue on the 2 to the 78 to St Albans, where you get onto the Route 105 to Enosburg, VT to Richford, VT, and continue on the 105 winding to Newport, VT. We do the 105 all the time. However, a heads-up: the 105 can be very rough on stretches just outside of Richford all the way to Newport.
My vote would be the I-91.
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silversand
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01/24/21 12:38pm |
Roads and Routes
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RE: US to require COVID Testing for International Flyers
As I understand it, the prevention to crossing borders is not leaving a country, but entering another.
....pertaining to flights only (not ground vehicle crossings), my understanding is that outbound flights (say, from Canada) are (inextricably) tied to filling as much as possible the return flight. ie if no return passengers are allowed to board the return portion of the flight, the airline will cease to fly to that airport.
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silversand
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01/21/21 05:30am |
RVing in Mexico and South America
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