I'll have a go at this.
I assume the trailer's GVWR is actually 4500 pounds, and 2500 pounds is a typo from somewhere; presumably it's not 915 pounds overweight when dry from the factory. I see that many sources online say 2500 pounds, but Jayco themselves say 4500 pounds and 4500 actually makes sense.
9950 GCWR - ca 4500 explorer curb weight = 5450 total explorer payload and trailer weight. The actual trailer weight would be a minimum of 4000 pounds (gear + trailer, not much if any water), and then additional payload in the explorer of a bit over 500 pounds for people, so you're under GCWR by about 900 pounds or so. Realistically I suspect there will be more stuff in the trailer and/or explorer, but there is also a little bit of wiggle room.
Trailer tongue weight ought to be right around 500 pounds, possibly slightly less (500 pounds would be 12.5% if the trailer weight is around 4000 pounds), or right near the limit of your hitch's rating. Total payload in the explorer would be 1020 pounds or so (tongue weight + people weight), under the approximately 1500 pound payload limit, and so about 500 pounds under GVWR. Since you have a weight distributing hitch, it should be possible to have the individual axle weights within their limits as well.
According to the Ford towing guide, they suggest a frontal area limit of 40 square feet for the explorer. ("Frontal Area is the total area in square feet that a moving vehicle and trailer exposes to air resistance. The chart shows the limitations that must be considered in selecting a vehicle/trailer combination. Exceeding these limitations may significantly reduce the performance of your towing vehicle.") This trailer would seem to be at least 50 square feet frontal area, and probably a little more.
In theory at least, you'd be within the weight limits, but there's not a whole lot of wiggle room and you're dragging a big sail behind a not especially beefy tow vehicle. I don't think it would be a very pleasant or generally satisfactory setup, particularly for a long trip or at highway speeds or with a headwind (and very much so if all three apply simultaneously). It's one thing to pull a heavy trailer a few miles around town at city speeds; it's quite another to attempt to cross the country at interstate speeds.
Water weighs about 8 pounds per gallon, so a full fresh water tanks would add about 200 pounds, and the water heater maybe another 50 pounds (it's not clear to me if they include it in the fresh water capacity or not--often it is). It's generally safe to assume that the gray/black tanks and the fresh water tank will not simultaneously be full, since the general progression is for fresh water to be used and turn into gray or black water, which is then dumped and the fresh water refilled.
