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To Short Circuit Rumors About Crude Oil And Fuel Prices

MEXICOWANDERER
Explorer
Explorer
It's bound to happen. Rumor Mongers will read news then twist it for every last drop of sensation is extracted.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/moodys-warns-oil-export-strategy-threatens-pemex/

ROAD APPLES except for the following...

Pemex will continue to process the same or more crude oil through the Shell/Pemex joint venture refinery at Deer Park, Houston, Texas.

The oil is not exported it is taking advantage of NAFTA agreements about zero import/export regulations and taxes.

This means that ANY price increase at extraneous gasolineras would have to take the form of import duty payable to the Mexican government.

This is just going to get weirder and weirder.

IF IF IF

The prices for comistibles happens I can see marches, blockades, and general strikes in Mexico's future.

It would be a terrible way for AMLO and his MORENA party to start off with.
6 REPLIES 6

qtla9111
Nomad
Nomad
MEXICOWANDERER wrote:

My Master's thesis was based on Latin American Economics so I am not writing this as an amateur.


Pemex is no longer the cash cow it once was. The increase in fuel taxes is to compensate for the loss. The increases help to maintain Pemex salaries, pensions and bonuses. The nationalization of 1938 was a huge mistake.

As for your thesis, how long ago did you write it? Things have changed a lot in the last 40 or more years.

This is a forum, so there are no experts.
2005 Dodge Durango Hemi
2008 Funfinder 230DS
Living and Boondocking Mexico Blog

qtla9111
Nomad
Nomad
Talleyho69 wrote:
Are these the current taxes? Do you know anything about the big increase that navagator wrote about?


According to the SHCP, expect an increase from 49 to 82 centavos in the price of fuel depending on the type and octane level. They are expecting the increases to take place between the 20 and the 26 of October.
2005 Dodge Durango Hemi
2008 Funfinder 230DS
Living and Boondocking Mexico Blog

MEXICOWANDERER
Explorer
Explorer
The way Mexico operates SAT, PEMEX, and CFE is "por dedo"

Dictation (dictator). The consumer does not enter the picture. They experience the effects with zero recourse except to protest by the tens of thousands marching down Ave Reforma. General Strike when things get serious.

THIS IS AN EDIT HEADLINE TODAY IN THE LA TIMES

The campaign to repeal California's gas tax increase is sputtering. That's because voters don't know about it

PEMEX has been a cash cow for the Mexican government and PEMEX union for many decades.

I just cannot fathom such an increase in energy prices. It would damage the economy, and institute a financial crisis such as not been seen for four decades. Think agriculture exports would not effect inflation to the point it would wreck exports? Think again. I just passed 12 miles of maquiladoras that had a titanic power transmission line feeding it from the Rosarito generating plant.

The Venezuela similar inflation figures would paralyze this country. Right now a regular class bus ticket Ensenada to the centro de Camiones in Tijuana costs 335 pesos. 18.60 dollars. 75 miles.

Is Mexican officialdom stupid enough to commit economic suicide? YES

The full effect would translate into a recession that will cripple the country. The dollar would have to be revalued in excess of 30 pesos to the dollar and the GDP would shrink 8.0% in a year.

If the Peso weakens it cripples national debt because debt is measured in dollars not pesos. A shattered economy means much fewer taxes collected.

My Master's thesis was based on Latin American Economics so I am not writing this as an amateur.

And millions of Mexicans would be storming the border.

I just cannot imagine the scenario as laid out in this thread.

Talleyho69
Moderator
Moderator
Are these the current taxes? Do you know anything about the big increase that navagator wrote about?

qtla9111
Nomad
Nomad
Gasoline taxes per liter in Mexico.

2005 Dodge Durango Hemi
2008 Funfinder 230DS
Living and Boondocking Mexico Blog

old_guy
Explorer
Explorer
gas went up around here last week. papers said months ago that gas prices were going down. not in this town, they only go up