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Eric&Lisa

Scappoose, OR

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Posted: 03/23/20 01:04pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Reality Check wrote:

...However, I don't agree that we will 'recovery very quickly'. Fantastic article three days ago... it's been a great teaching piece especially for the younger ones who through no fault of their own, can't quite grasp the road we're on.

The Atlantic, This Is Not a Recession. It’s an Ice Age.

No, I don't think it's going to be quick. Last week, guru's were warning of 20% unemployment. Now, we're hearing 30%. It's a big deal. Personally, I find our value system a bit over the edge for the possible return, but make no mistake, as a nation, world, we're choosing a path. I pray I'm wrong.


So here is a question... How many people were laid off just for the purpose of being able to claim unemployment?

As an example, one of our local restaurant chains (McMenamins), laid off over 3000 employees due to the 'no dining' order. Those employees have hit the unemployment roles and statistics. When the 'no dining' order is lifted, how many of them will be suddenly re-employed? The restaurants cannot re-open without re-hiring.

So I will agree with you - sure we could get a 20-30% spike until these orders are lifted. I don't see a 30% unemployment for the next decade like the Great Depression.

The economic answers comes back to how quickly the government lifts the restrictions and lets people get back to work.

Thanks,
-Eric


Eric & Lisa - Oregon
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Kayteg1

California > Nevada

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Posted: 03/23/20 01:23pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

DWeikert wrote:

Kayteg1 wrote:

Hm... It is Monday 10 AM in Las Vegas and all official data about virus spread are not updated since Friday....

United States Coronavirus Cases

US Coronavirus Cases: 40,841

Active cases: 40,171
in Mild Condition: 39,131 (97%)
in Critical condition: 1,040 (3%)

Closed cases
Deaths: 483
Recovered: 187

(As of the time of this post)

This seem to be all 3 days old data. Per predictions the numbers should be 8 times bigger by now.





jimh425

Western MT

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Posted: 03/23/20 01:32pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Kayteg1 wrote:

This seem to be all 3 days old data. Per predictions the numbers should be 8 times bigger by now.


All of the crystal balls seem to be broken. Most are using Italy as the standard it seems, but Italy is proving to be an extreme outlier. France seems to be closer, but still not exploding as predicted because they were also using Italy as the model to follow.

According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.

US is + 8023 compared to yesterday for a total of 41, 569 cases.

France is +3,838 compared to yesterday for a total of 19,586 cases.

Finally, the death rates are also all over the place with almost no country following the Italy model of % deaths per number of cases that is currently about 10%.


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Kayteg1

California > Nevada

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Posted: 03/23/20 01:37pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

And again Jim, when I follow the statistics you linked to Nevada, it will show 190 cases. That is Friday/Saturday statistic.
I assume the same apply to other states.

Kayteg1

California > Nevada

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Posted: 03/23/20 02:07pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

What a difference 1 hr makes.
NV cases went up to 245
US total 42 032.
I am sceptic with lack of data reliability and fact that they don't post hr of updates, but looks that US slow down the spread.
Still official data shows
yesterday for a total of 41, 569 cases
add 8,486 for last day
and official data for today is 42,032
hm......

DWeikert

York, PA

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Posted: 03/23/20 02:38pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Kayteg1 wrote:

What a difference 1 hr makes.
NV cases went up to 245
US total 42 032.
I am sceptic with lack of data reliability and fact that they don't post hr of updates, but looks that US slow down the spread.
Still official data shows
yesterday for a total of 41, 569 cases
add 8,486 for last day
and official data for today is 42,032
hm......

Before you think the spread is slowing, read this.
CNN 11:28 a.m. ET, March 21, 2020 wrote:

A news release from the Los Angeles Department of Public Health this week advised doctors not to test those experiencing only mild respiratory symptoms unless “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.”

The recommendation reflects a "shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality," according to the statement.

The guidance said coronavirus testing at L.A. County public health labs will prioritized those with symptoms, health care workers, residents of long-term care facilities, paramedics and other high-risk situations. Others are encouraged to simply stay at home.

At about the same time, the New York City Department of Health directed all healthcare facilities to immediately stop testing non-hospitalized patients for Covid-19.

"At this point in the pandemic, demand for unnecessary testing is contributing to the rapidly diminishing supply of PPE and leading to a decreasing supply of swabs and viral transport media used to collect diagnostic specimens for Covid-19 testing"

It's the same problem we had initially. If we don't test the infection rate looks low.


Dan
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jimh425

Western MT

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Posted: 03/23/20 02:49pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

The truth is none of us know if it is spreading faster or slower. It’s going to take a few days to stabilize testing and even longer to have an idea if we’ve tested enough people.

Kayteg1

California > Nevada

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Posted: 03/23/20 03:49pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Per NV statistics for 245 positive tests, 3500 come negative.
So the drive-thru testing sites overwhelmed medical workers and drained supplies.
But I still believe each death was tested and closing drive-thru will not change this statistic.
What I am trying to figure out why it takes 3 days for statistics to publish.
We are in Internet era after all.

DWeikert

York, PA

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Posted: 03/23/20 04:39pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

jimh425 wrote:

The truth is none of us know if it is spreading faster or slower. It’s going to take a few days to stabilize testing and even longer to have an idea if we’ve tested enough people.

Considering people are the most contagious just before they start showing symptoms and we're only testing people after they show symptoms, there's no way we've done enough testing. Containment is no longer an option and we aren't even trying. Right now the only goal is to slow the infection rate so we don't overwhelm our health care system. Unless a vaccine is miraculously developed in the next month or two it's a question of when, not if virtually everyone in the US is infected.

Kayteg1

California > Nevada

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Posted: 03/23/20 07:43pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I wonder what is advantage of taking sick people to hospital instead of having them fight the virus at their homes?
Testing and hospitalisation only increase the risk of virus spread.
I prize Nevada governor who learn from other states mistakes and locked the state down with only few sick persons.
If statistics are right, in last 3 days the confirmed cases rose only by 25%, what most likely are the people who got sick before lockdown.
Than again, if 78F killing the virus is correct - we are only days away from nature helping us.

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