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 > coronavirus...put it into perspective

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freetime58

Winnipeg

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Posted: 03/21/20 05:11pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

freetime58 wrote:

time2roll wrote:

Unchecked covid-19 could be double the combined list.


Very true..................the spring breakers not taking the warnings seriously can wipe out thousands and thousands and thousands!


Dutch_12078

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Posted: 03/21/20 05:26pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

rexlion wrote:

China seems to be on the downhill side of this outbreak. They say the incidence of new cases as well as the incidence of deaths in China have both declined for the past month. China's population is 1.435 Billion. Total deaths attributed to this virus, as of now, stands at 3,255. If my math is correct, that's a mortality rate of 0.00022% of the population in the nation that was the origin and epicenter of the disease. (Mortality rates are supposed to be calculated versus total population, but many news sources are figuring death number versus number diagnosed with the disease, a misleading statistic if it's called "mortality rate.")


Have you looked at the draconian measures China took to reach this point? Are we willing to submit to them here?

China’s aggressive measures have slowed ........us. They may not work in other countries


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fj12ryder

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Posted: 03/21/20 05:28pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

"Italy took a laid back approach and their mess is real. Hospitals are overwhelmed and people are dying."

Well, I'm not so sure that there was much Italy could do to limit their mess. Lots of old people living cheek-by-jowl with each other. You are looking at a culture medium waiting for a virus.


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fj12ryder

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Posted: 03/21/20 05:41pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Dutch_12078 wrote:

rexlion wrote:

China seems to be on the downhill side of this outbreak. They say the incidence of new cases as well as the incidence of deaths in China have both declined for the past month. China's population is 1.435 Billion. Total deaths attributed to this virus, as of now, stands at 3,255. If my math is correct, that's a mortality rate of 0.00022% of the population in the nation that was the origin and epicenter of the disease. (Mortality rates are supposed to be calculated versus total population, but many news sources are figuring death number versus number diagnosed with the disease, a misleading statistic if it's called "mortality rate.")


Have you looked at the draconian measures China took to reach this point? Are we willing to submit to them here?

China’s aggressive measures have slowed ........us. They may not work in other countries
Uh, a lot of those measures are already done: closing concerts, arenas, large gatherings of people, closing restaurants and shops, curfews in some areas. And talk of limiting travel except for necessary people. Those are all pretty draconian steps to take.

WTP-GC

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Posted: 03/21/20 06:09pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

rexlion wrote:

China seems to be on the downhill side of this outbreak. They say the incidence of new cases as well as the incidence of deaths in China have both declined for the past month. China's population is 1.435 Billion. Total deaths attributed to this virus, as of now, stands at 3,255. If my math is correct, that's a mortality rate of 0.00022% of the population in the nation that was the origin and epicenter of the disease. (Mortality rates are supposed to be calculated versus total population, but many news sources are figuring death number versus number diagnosed with the disease, a misleading statistic if it's called "mortality rate.")

Chine is the king of misinformation. State run media, health care, completely communist society...yet we are to believe what they’re saying? Much of China is on some form of lockdown/quarantine/whatever...but they are reporting that their factories are operating at nearly full capacity. Huh??? How is that possible? Well...they lie!!

We’ve all reviewed and considered the perspective of Covid 19 vs. the flu. The difference, though, is that covid-19 is an animal borne virus which the human body has no “current” immunity to. We as a nation are smart to actively engage heavy social distancing and stop this thing before it becomes a 1M or 2M killer. If allowed to spread, it would make the flu look like a sinus headache.


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TomG2

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Posted: 03/21/20 06:31pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

"Supposedly" there was Intel warning us, long before the official Chinese announcement. Really doesn't matter, we were not ready. Part (All?) of government's job is to protect us. Did they? You decide.

Lantley

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Posted: 03/21/20 06:41pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

fj12ryder wrote:

"Italy took a laid back approach and their mess is real. Hospitals are overwhelmed and people are dying."

Well, I'm not so sure that there was much Italy could do to limit their mess. Lots of old people living cheek-by-jowl with each other. You are looking at a culture medium waiting for a virus.

I agree Italy has an aging population nevertheless they were slow to enact social distancing measures. Businesses and things were closed but the populous was still allowed to socialize.
Bars and restaurants were not closed until it was too late.
Fortunately we have learned from their mistake.

Some of our urgency is a result of seeing their slowed reaction.
To some degree, they were reactive vs. proactive.
I think those that feel the US is overreacting or panicking for no reason fail to comprehend the U.S is being proactive vs. reactive.


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Dutch_12078

Winters south, summers north

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Posted: 03/21/20 07:27pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

fj12ryder wrote:

Dutch_12078 wrote:

rexlion wrote:

China seems to be on the downhill side of this outbreak. They say the incidence of new cases as well as the incidence of deaths in China have both declined for the past month. China's population is 1.435 Billion. Total deaths attributed to this virus, as of now, stands at 3,255. If my math is correct, that's a mortality rate of 0.00022% of the population in the nation that was the origin and epicenter of the disease. (Mortality rates are supposed to be calculated versus total population, but many news sources are figuring death number versus number diagnosed with the disease, a misleading statistic if it's called "mortality rate.")


Have you looked at the draconian measures China took to reach this point? Are we willing to submit to them here?

China’s aggressive measures have slowed ........us. They may not work in other countries
Uh, a lot of those measures are already done: closing concerts, arenas, large gatherings of people, closing restaurants and shops, curfews in some areas. And talk of limiting travel except for necessary people. Those are all pretty draconian steps to take.

More than 50 million people under mandatory quarantine has not occurred in the US, nor is our government monitoring our movements using popular phone apps to enforce compliance. In other parts of China people "voluntarily" quarantined and were monitored by appointed leaders. Are we up for that here?

philh

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Posted: 03/21/20 07:59pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Law of exponentials.

Global cases ex china were doubling every 5-6 days. R0 (contagion factor) is somewhere between 4.5 and 6 (or higher). 20% of cases need advanced medical care. Death rate of in some countries is 10%. Italy is struggling with an overwhelmed medical system.

We are in uncharted waters here. Never seen anything spread this fast, nor be this deadly, this fast.

Bionic Man

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Posted: 03/21/20 09:43pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Worth the read.


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