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 > coronavirus...put it into perspective

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am1958

SE Michigan

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Posted: 03/22/20 05:59am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I wrote the following elsewhere but I think it would be educational to put it here to clarify the issue at hand:-

Quote:

I had a long and very informative conversation with my doctor who I have known for about 20 years. His biggest bug is that his elderly parents, (he's about my age), only came here from India to live with him 2 months ago and he's in a high risk profession.

He explained a lot about this virus and why it's different from the flu and stuff like swine flu and why it's more dangerous. It goes something like this... Flu, (we'll just use this word for any influenza ie: bird, swine etc. ), usually displays it's symptoms 24-36 hours after infection and, as a result, a single infected person on average infects 1.2 other people. Covid19 hides for between 3 and 12 days showing no symptoms in the infected individual all the while being infectious. This causes a single individual to infect not 1.2 others but rather 2.2 - 4.0 others.

The other key piece of information he passed on was that neither flu nor Covid19 have killed anyone, period. But the difference between the two is that in those that are compromised by age or infirmity get bacterial pneumonia from the flu which is treatable with antibiotics but those who get Covid19 while compromised get viral pneumonia which, to date, there is no cure which is what puts up the mortality rate.

He also pointed out that since it's inception in early December 2019 the virus has mutated once already. If I remember the letters, it was at version L which allowed it to move from animals to humans but not from human to human but it mutated to M which allowed human to human transmission and that as long as it stays as it is we get a chance to fight it. I pointed out that it's next mutation is not the result of a sentient being trying to improve itself so it could equally easily harm itself in humans but I accept the fact that the "successful" organism tends to survive. He agreed... It also might not mutate because it has reached it's "pinnacle"... But that is unlikely...

He says that right now in the USA we have only really identified 10% of the actually infected population and that the numbers will rise exponentially in the next two weeks. The entire current strategy of social distancing or quarantine is designed to reduce the pressure on the health care systems of all countries because if they cannot properly treat then the virus becomes more rampant.

So my takeaways from the conversation were that the actual numbers are behind, (sometimes way behind), the actual infection rate. That in order to actually kill the virus, absent a totally "killer" cure" will take at least 2 years assuming no detrimental mutations - this doesn't mean 2 years of home quarantine and that which would come from such impossibility but that the virus will live in and threaten the compromised population for a couple of years. If it mutates like the flu then we'll really need a flu shot and CovidX shot annually. He thinks that the threat is very real because so many people are compromised in many ways nowadays, (in history they would already be dead but for the better healthcare), so if it grips the deaths will be high... He laughed when I pointed out that we can stop worrying about overpopulation... :-D Oh, and he said I'm healthy enough not to worry about the virus... I'll get it, defeat it and move on without the subsequent viral pneumonia...


I hope that sheds some light for some.

Just to note: I am not one who is particularly concerned and have always been well prepared for "odd" events... My biggest concern is my stubborn 89 year old dad alone in his home in the UK...

StirCrazy

Kamloops, BC, Canada

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Posted: 03/22/20 06:07am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

RV daytrader wrote:

Not to make light of the corona virus as I am sure more will die from it but.....this is for the United States in 2017

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

coronavirus: 298 so far

So...try to stay away from crowds....but don,t panic...imo


you do realize that with no precautions taken that the projection is 10 million deaths in the US alone with in about 5-6 months. social distancing, isolations and other measures can drop that number down to 100000.

Steve


2014 F350 6.7 Platinum
2016 Cougar 330RBK

1968mooney

Fl.

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Posted: 03/22/20 06:09am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

wildtoad wrote:

So just focus on the one number for “The Flu”. 55k deaths from flu happens year in and year out during the flu “season” even though we have vaccines and remedies. Like now, most of the deaths are in our age group (I assume most on this list are old). No schools close, no travel bans, no cratering of the economy.

Any forecast of deaths due to Covid are simply unfounded. At the end of the day some politician will pontificate how many lives were saved by these severe steps. That number will be a totally made up number.

Yes we need to take steps to protect ourselves and each other but without destroying the economy.


Please list the steps you suggest to protect ourselves yet protecting the economy? Now would be a great time to visit Italy.

pitch

NY

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Posted: 03/22/20 06:45am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Hammerboy wrote:

freetime58 wrote:

RV daytrader wrote:

Not to make light of the corona virus as I am sure more will die from it but.....this is for the United States in 2017

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

coronavirus: 298 so far

So...try to stay away from crowds....but don,t panic...imo


None of those have the ability to tank the economy like Covid-19 already has....none of those stand to tax the health care system to the max and overwhelm things to the point where health care professional will have to make a decision on who lives and who dies . People may not only loose their lives but the economic impact will also lose people their jobs, homes, savings, retirement savings, cars, trucks, rv's....you name it. Seems many folks are just too narrow minded and selfish to take it serious enough...........let's see you post again in 3 to 6 months and see if you've changed your attitude and perspective on things.


Nothing wrong with trying to calm people down a bit from the hysteria going on. Yes it serious and I am taking precautions but I am not living in fear.

Dan


So some random yahoo on an RV page,down plays an epidemic, and you heap praise for trying to calm the populaces panic? Well Alrighty then!!!!!!

2oldman

New Mexico

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Posted: 03/22/20 07:51am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

wildtoad wrote:

Any forecast of deaths due to Covid are simply unfounded. At the end of the day some politician will pontificate how many lives were saved by these severe steps. That number will be a totally made up number.
What makes you think this is some kind of a conspiracy?

fj12ryder

Platte City, MO

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Posted: 03/22/20 07:57am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

StirCrazy wrote:

you do realize that with no precautions taken that the projection is 10 million deaths in the US alone with in about 5-6 months. social distancing, isolations and other measures can drop that number down to 100000.

Steve
You do realize that what you've just written is total speculation and FUD. With no actual basis in reality. You can find someone to support any theory that is floated, but "It Ain't Necessarily So".

Just calm down, and don't spread FUD, like that. If you're sick, stay home, self-medicate. If you're not sick, stay home and self-medicate. The only difference is which drug you're using to medicate yourself. [emoticon]


Howard and Peggy

"Don't Panic"

Crowe

Merrimack, NH

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Posted: 03/22/20 08:00am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

So some random yahoo

Nice. What make you any different?


I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be Douglas Adams

RV-less for now but our spirits are still on the open road.

nickthehunter

Southgate, MI

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Posted: 03/22/20 08:14am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

This whole thread is now Exhibit No. 1 of the Fake Media whipping the populace into hysteria. You have now entered the next Recession or possibly second Great Depression. The cause, shutting down "business as normal" for nothing. And you can solely thank the Media.

Due care, dillegence and prudence is one thing, mass hysteria is another.

Evidence of mass hysteria, why is it nearly impossible to buy a roll of toilet paper. Congratulations on being duped by the Media and good luck with your finances for the next 10 years, your going to need it.

* This post was edited 03/22/20 08:22am by nickthehunter *

2oldman

New Mexico

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Posted: 03/22/20 08:20am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

nickthehunter wrote:

This whole thread is now Exhibit No. 1 of the Fake Media whipping the populace into hysteria. You have now entered the next Recession or possibly second Great Depression. The cause, shutting down "business as normal" for nothing. And you can solely thank the Media.
And here all this time I thought the media just reported what is happening. Darn, if we'd listened to Fox news none of this would be happening...wait, Lou Dobbs is in quarantine.

What would you like the media to do.. not report any of this? I really don't understand this blaming of them all the time.

fj12ryder

Platte City, MO

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Posted: 03/22/20 08:27am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

"And here all this time I thought the media just reported what is happening."

You're living in a dream world, that type of reporting died with Walter Cronkite. Now they do whatever they need to do to create news if there isn't any worth reporting. Why do you think there are so many conflicting reports happening? With the social media, and online news, it's all about the "clicks".

"Clickbait" is the new headlines. Facts have little to do with it.

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