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 > coronavirus...put it into perspective

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cummins2014

Utah

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Posted: 03/22/20 02:49pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

fj12ryder wrote:

I believe that nearly everyone will be fine. That's agreed to by almost all the people involved. The numbers usually thrown around that I've seen is over 90%, and around 80% of the people who show symptoms will be mild cases.

IOW, if people had ignored the hype from the media, stayed at home if they were feeling sick, stayed at home unless they really needed to go out, and stayed away from crowds, we wouldn't be having the hysteria fanned by the media. Most people will be able to do their jobs, most people will be able to get things to the grocery stores, shops and such.

Closing sporting events, slowing mass crowd convergences is a good thing. No one, and I me NO ONE knows positively what will happen over the coming months, but acting like the depression is around the corner and acting like it's the end of civilization is simply asinine.

Stay home, chill out, and self-medicate, with the drug of choice. Mine is beer, just not any of that lite stuff that calls itself beer. Dark ales, all the way.


What I believe this is real , and I agree we need to chill and stay home . But until “ALL” take this seriously , we are in for some bad shi!! and a long haul . We are a free society that a lot of us think that we are free to do what we want.

We had a 24 year test positive a couple days ago here in our county in Utah . Went skiing with his buddies to Colorado . At least one of his buddies tested positive also . They interviewed him and one of his comments were , I wished I had listened . There lies our biggest enemy with this fight , not listening to the warnings . We need to think people

Boomerweps

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Posted: 03/22/20 03:00pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

2oldman wrote:

rexlion wrote:

A proper calculation of mortality rate is: total dead divided by total population.
That's one way. Another is to compare the dead to those infected, and that's where the numbers go way up.

That's why we're so concerned about its spread.


Yes, and there's the rub. "those infected" is either a total guess OR determined by those few actually tested or have been diagnosed by multiple symptom. Makes for a mighty small number to compare those deceased to ;(


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time2roll

Southern California

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Posted: 03/22/20 03:01pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

rexlion wrote:

A proper calculation of mortality rate is: total dead divided by total population.

The outbreak hit Germany and France a bit earlier than Italy.
Germany's mortality rate is 93 divided by 83,000,000, or 0.0001% so far.
France's mortality rate so far is 562 divided by 65,000,000 = 0.00086%.
China's rate (if it can be believed) is similarly low.
(For reference, influenza mortality is typically in the 0.1% range.)

Of all the countries, Italy is the statistical outlier. Despite being later to the illness than China, S. Korea, Germany, and France, Italy's most recent mortality number is 5,476 out of 60,000,000 people, which still is only a rate of 0.009%.

Even though less than 1 in 10,000 has reportedly died from Covid-19 in Italy, the nation hardest hit by this virus so far, the MSM has continued to trot out a "two to three percent death rate" claim. Worse still, they love to use a sensationalized death rate, incorrectly calculated: total deaths divided by number diagnosed with the illness, instead of dividing by total population. Thus they claim false numbers like 10% or 12% death rates.

A herd of cattle will stampede over a minor thing; one loud noise or even a single spooked steer can start the herd on a mad, blind dash. Are we any better than a herd of cattle?
While by the definition you are correct... although we tend to worry more about issues with increasing mortality rates. How high will it go for covid-19? How high would it go if no precautions are taken? This is the true unknown.


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2oldman

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Posted: 03/22/20 03:08pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

fj12ryder wrote:

IOW, if people had ignored the hype from the media, stayed at home if they were feeling sick, stayed at home unless they really needed to go out, and stayed away from crowds, we wouldn't be having the hysteria fanned by the media.
How would anyone know to do that unless they listened to the media?

2oldman

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Posted: 03/22/20 03:10pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

cummins2014 wrote:

, I wish I had listened . There lies our biggest enemy with this fight , not listening to the warnings . We need to think people
And this is one of the biggest problems, especially deep in red country. People who believe it's just another "hoax" to get 'him'. Or God will take care of it.

And these are the folks who will spread it.

babock

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Posted: 03/22/20 03:14pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

They should have a chart, based on time, how many people are still in denial! What I am reading in this thread is pretty remarkable.

2oldman

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Posted: 03/22/20 03:15pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

babock wrote:

They should have a chart, based on time, how many people are still in denial! What I am reading in this thread is pretty remarkable.
Sobering, isn't it?

babock

Los Angeles, CA

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Posted: 03/22/20 03:19pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

2oldman wrote:

babock wrote:

They should have a chart, based on time, how many people are still in denial! What I am reading in this thread is pretty remarkable.
Sobering, isn't it?
And not surprising!

Common sense is not very common!

fj12ryder

Platte City, MO

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Posted: 03/22/20 03:19pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

2oldman wrote:

fj12ryder wrote:

IOW, if people had ignored the hype from the media, stayed at home if they were feeling sick, stayed at home unless they really needed to go out, and stayed away from crowds, we wouldn't be having the hysteria fanned by the media.
How would anyone know to do that unless they listened to the media?
Exactly how does one differentiate hype from real news. Ignore 90% of what you hear and you may actually be able to filter out a little truth.


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time2roll

Southern California

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Posted: 03/22/20 03:20pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

2oldman wrote:

fj12ryder wrote:

IOW, if people had ignored the hype from the media, stayed at home if they were feeling sick, stayed at home unless they really needed to go out, and stayed away from crowds, we wouldn't be having the hysteria fanned by the media.
How would anyone know to do that unless they listened to the media?
Especially when facing disciplinary action for staying home when sick as is happening in the delivery business? What if the person is facing losing the job if they stay out sick? What about those without sick pay that may not be able to pay rent or feed their children? Life presents difficult decisions for many. I feel bad for them as my life is comparatively easy.

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