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 > coronavirus...put it into perspective

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free radical

Canada

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Posted: 03/21/20 09:50pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

magicbus wrote:

2oldman wrote:

Diabetes can be mitigated by less beer and ice cream.
Made my day to not see bacon on that list [emoticon].

Besides, it any residual physical effects of catching and surviving this that I don't want to have to live with.

Dave

Its a great secret doctors dont want us to know,
bacon makes people live longer [emoticon]

https://www.today.com/food/its-got-be-cr........n-105-says-bacon-key-longevity-1C9846050

T18skyguy

Eugene, OR

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Posted: 03/21/20 10:33pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

rexlion wrote:

China seems to be on the downhill side of this outbreak. They say the incidence of new cases as well as the incidence of deaths in China have both declined for the past month. China's population is 1.435 Billion. Total deaths attributed to this virus, as of now, stands at 3,255. If my math is correct, that's a mortality rate of 0.00022% of the population in the nation that was the origin and epicenter of the disease. (Mortality rates are supposed to be calculated versus total population, but many news sources are figuring death number versus number diagnosed with the disease, a misleading statistic if it's called "mortality rate.")

China was able to bring it under control by issuing a total lockdown of a broad area. They drew a big circle on a map and froze the whole population. They can do that since their a totalitarian society. Regarding the numbers, 15% of everyone who gets Covid19 gets hospitalized. So you can see their concern with having to hospitalize
millions. We have about 925,000 staffed hospital beds in the country, so this virus could more than mow them over easily. I am hopeful that some of the measures they are taking will slow it down. We have some herd immunity to the flu, which keeps it at a mortality of .1% We have no immunity to this. Combine that with the fact that it spreads much more easily than the flu, and Covid19's very long incubation period, and it's a very serious matter. The incubation period for flu is several days or so, so folks are able to avoid the obvious quickly. But Covid19's incubation period of 2 weeks, allows it to be spread rapidly and quickly since the individuals are fully infectious during that period and they have no symptoms. Four out of five people who catch it got it from someone with no symptoms. One of the issue's is that folks find it hard to believe it's happening, including me, and I been in health care 50 years.


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time2roll

Southern California

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Posted: 03/21/20 10:34pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Scroll down a bit and check the graphs.

Also note the closed cases: 88% recovered, 12% passed away.
You don't want this.

* This post was edited 03/21/20 10:46pm by time2roll *


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Flapper

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Posted: 03/21/20 11:03pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

This presentation (very short) by Chicago epidemiologist Dr. Emily Landon should be required for everyone:
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/ch........he-country-read-her-full-speech/2241815/

The two key quotes:
"If we let every patient with this infection infect three more people and then each of them infect two or three people, there won’t be a hospital bed when my mother can’t breathe very well or when yours is coughing too much."

and:
" Why ask so much of people for just a few hundred cases? Because it’s the only way to save lives. And now is the time. The numbers you see today in the news are the people who got sick a week ago. And there are so many people who got sick today who haven't even noticed that they got sick yet. They picked up the virus and it'll take a week to see that show in our numbers. Waiting for hospitals to be overwhelmed will leave the following week’s patients with nowhere to go. In short, without taking drastic measures, the healthy and optimistic among us will doom the vulnerable.

We need to fight this fire before it grows too high. But these extreme restrictions may seem in the end a little anticlimactic because it’s really hard to feel like you’re saving the world when you’re watching Netflix on your couch but, if we do this right, nothing happens. Yes. A successful shelter in place means that you will feel like it was all for nothing. And you would be right. Because “nothing” means that nothing happened to your family and that's what we are going for here."


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free radical

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Posted: 03/21/20 11:12pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

WTP-GC wrote:

rexlion wrote:

China seems to be on the downhill side of this outbreak. They say the incidence of new cases as well as the incidence of deaths in China have both declined for the past month. China's population is 1.435 Billion. Total deaths attributed to this virus, as of now, stands at 3,255. If my math is correct, that's a mortality rate of 0.00022% of the population in the nation that was the origin and epicenter of the disease. (Mortality rates are supposed to be calculated versus total population, but many news sources are figuring death number versus number diagnosed with the disease, a misleading statistic if it's called "mortality rate.")

Chine is the king of misinformation. State run media, health care, completely communist society...yet we are to believe what they’re saying? Much of China is on some form of lockdown/quarantine/whatever...but they are reporting that their factories are operating at nearly full capacity. Huh??? How is that possible? Well...they lie!!

That doesnt make any sense
Why would China leaders need to lie?

All workers wear protective masks and avoid physical contact,easy to do imo.
Tesla China factory runs just like that even now.

Did you know that China has the largest number of Billionares in the world!
Seems like their style o Comunism isnt all that bad.

China health care may not be perfect but with population of 1.4 bilion
Its doing ok and Everyone is covered
https://youtu.be/N6kuU5hNbCk

free radical

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Posted: 03/21/20 11:17pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Flapper wrote:

This presentation (very short) by Chicago epidemiologist Dr. Emily Landon should be required for everyone:
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/ch........he-country-read-her-full-speech/2241815/

The two key quotes:
"If we let every patient with this infection infect three more people and then each of them infect two or three people, there won’t be a hospital bed when my mother can’t breathe very well or when yours is coughing too much."

and:
" Why ask so much of people for just a few hundred cases? Because it’s the only way to save lives. And now is the time. The numbers you see today in the news are the people who got sick a week ago. And there are so many people who got sick today who haven't even noticed that they got sick yet. They picked up the virus and it'll take a week to see that show in our numbers. Waiting for hospitals to be overwhelmed will leave the following week’s patients with nowhere to go. In short, without taking drastic measures, the healthy and optimistic among us will doom the vulnerable.

We need to fight this fire before it grows too high. But these extreme restrictions may seem in the end a little anticlimactic because it’s really hard to feel like you’re saving the world when you’re watching Netflix on your couch but, if we do this right, nothing happens. Yes. A successful shelter in place means that you will feel like it was all for nothing. And you would be right. Because “nothing” means that nothing happened to your family and that's what we are going for here."


In China its mandatory to wear a mask when in public
Maybe it should be the same here also

https://youtu.be/kTpeUrpBTbU

C Schomer

Pueblo West, Co.

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Posted: 03/22/20 02:14am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

All the precautions are warranted… Just look at what's happening in Italy. I am 68 and have allergies from hell and asthma on top of it. Pueblo has only had one confirmed case but it still scares the bajeezers out of me, craig

pasusan

Northernmost PA

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Posted: 03/22/20 04:59am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

RV daytrader wrote:

Not to make light of the corona virus as I am sure more will die from it but.....this is for the United States in 2017

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

coronavirus: 298 so far

So...try to stay away from crowds....but don,t panic...imo

There is an interesting calculator that compares these leading causes of death with what could happen with coronavirus. Worth a look...


Oh, and speaking of calculators - here's one for how much toilet paper you will need. [emoticon]


"I'm out here to enjoy nature -- don't talk to me about the environment!" ~Denny Crane

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TomG2

Central Illinois

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Posted: 03/22/20 05:13am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

We can be overcautious or undercautious. Kind of like playing Russian Roulette. "Do you feel lucky today, kid?"

wildtoad

Blythewood, SC

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Posted: 03/22/20 05:46am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

So just focus on the one number for “The Flu”. 55k deaths from flu happens year in and year out during the flu “season” even though we have vaccines and remedies. Like now, most of the deaths are in our age group (I assume most on this list are old). No schools close, no travel bans, no cratering of the economy.

Any forecast of deaths due to Covid are simply unfounded. At the end of the day some politician will pontificate how many lives were saved by these severe steps. That number will be a totally made up number.

Yes we need to take steps to protect ourselves and each other but without destroying the economy.


Tom Wilds
Blythewood, SC
2016 Newmar Baystar Sport 3004
2015 Jeep Wrangler 2dr HT

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