Good Sam Club Open Roads Forum: Around the Campfire: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
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 > 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

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BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 11/13/20 06:21am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Quote:

The Change in Seroprevalence in the US plus Puerto Rico between May and September of SARS-CoV-2 Antibody in the Asymptomatic Population
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.10.20215145

Abstract

Objective: Determine the seroprevalence and 3 month temporal change of SARS-COV-2 in the US and Puerto Rico in an asymptomatic well population. Results: The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the asymptomatic population has doubled during the May to September time period, going from 3.0% to 6.6%. Positive serology to SARS-COV-2 was similar in males and females but varies by age. The greatest increase was in the youngest population. Based on the September prevalence it is estimated that there are 11.1 million (bootstrap 95% CI: 10.8 - 11.5 million) asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, which is 1.95 times the cumulative number of cases in the US reported to the CDC as of September 1, 2020. . Conclusions: The number of new SARS-COV-2 cases more than doubled in this 3 months period. The seroprevalence by age group is high in the youngest ( 70, 2.0%). Over the three month study period the rate of increase in prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 serology varies by state with a range from 0.84 (State of New York) to more than 12 (Tennessee). This study identifies states were public health mitigation has blunted the spread and also areas where additional levels of intensified public education, surveillance and targeted intervention may be warranted.


Take-aways
The number of people who have been infected, based upon the presence of antibodies, is estimated to be 2x the number reported by positive Covid testing
The magnitudes of 3 month increases in antibodies for covid were age dependent (perhaps due to one's perception of risk which changes with age)
An estimated 6.6% of the population has been infected which is a long way from "herd immunity" (note: total covid deaths in USA is 1/3 of the total US deaths due to the Spanish Flu epidemic)
The increases were smallest in those states that were hit hard in the first wave
The prevalence in most of the country is catching up to (or has caught up to) that in the states hit in first wave; except for hardest hit NY (14.4%) which still leads the nation
These data do not include the latest increases in infection which started in Oct

* This post was edited 11/13/20 06:40am by BCSnob *

MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

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Posted: 11/13/20 01:47pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Thank you. The data I miss is a percentile of recuperation with complications database quantity. Analysis of long term complications. Is it rare? Is it age or gender sensitive? Quantitive tendencies. Age versus permanent respiratory damage.

pianotuna

Regina, SK, Canada

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Posted: 11/14/20 10:46am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Hi Mex,

Covid appears to be gender sensitive. I am not sure that is not a statement about social behaviors. For example, if a man and a woman live together, it is much more likely that cleaning ends up being done by the female. That may indicate more chances of exposure.


Regards, Don
My ride is a 28 foot Class C, 256 watts solar, 556 amp hours of AGM in two battery banks 12 volt batteries, 3000 watt Magnum hybrid inverter, Sola Basic Autoformer, Microair Easy Start.

MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

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Posted: 11/14/20 02:30pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

BOTH ladies keep this place hospital sterile. BATHROOM and kitchen all glazed tile. Hot water, detergent and clorine. Stove, dishes and utensils. With doors, windows and fans going, they go from room to room. Me being always in a different room. I've got tons of detergent, hydrogen peroxide, bleach and surgeon's scrub. I even microwave currency for 10 seconds. Coins go into the bleach and water jar. I'd give Howard Hughes a run for his paranoia any day.

Geo*Boy

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Joined: 04/27/2020

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Posted: 11/14/20 04:13pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

MEXICOWANDERER wrote:

BOTH ladies keep this place hospital sterile. BATHROOM and kitchen all glazed tile. Hot water, detergent and clorine. Stove, dishes and utensils. With doors, windows and fans going, they go from room to room. Me being always in a different room. I've got tons of detergent, hydrogen peroxide, bleach and surgeon's scrub. I even microwave currency for 10 seconds. Coins go into the bleach and water jar. I'd give Howard Hughes a run for his paranoia any day.

[emoticon]

MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

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Posted: 11/15/20 02:27pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

  • Does viral loading vary from victim to victim?
  • What is a fair guesstimate of the percentage of elderly that manage to not have to undergo intensive care?
  • What is a guesstimate of the percentage of elderly who can manage with a CPAP or BiPAP?
  • What happens to asymptomatic carriers after diagnosis?
  • How many days between infection and illness symptoms?
  • Any sign of phase III inoculated losing substantial amounts of protection?
  • Does viral loading vary from victim to victim?
  • What is a fair guesstimate of the percentage of elderly that manage to not have to undergo intensive care?
  • What is a guesstimate of the percentage of elderly who can manage with a CPAP or BiPAP?
  • What happens to asymptomatic carriers after diagnosis?
  • How many days between infection and illness symptoms?
  • Any sign of phase III inoculated losing substantial amounts of protection?


silversand

Montreal

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Posted: 11/16/20 07:51am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Mexicowanderer wrote:

PERSONALLY Pfizer has a way to go proofing their serum. Three months total is absurdly short in my opinion. I would look for a release clearance sometime around June 2021. This would give Phase III trials a bare minimum of time.


....now that we have heard (via corporate press releases) of two potential vaccine candidates (the 2nd candidate, this morning) that are inferred "safe to continue trials" and "90% to 95% effective", I am unaware if any of these apparently good candidates are moving into human challenge trail(s). I mean human challenge trials without the placebo component on older cohorts, and cohorts with a few comorbidity risks (and, of course, younger cohorts). The reason I ask, is that if US Federal emergency EUA will be used to fast-track these two candidates to a hundred + million US-wide, it would make no sense at all to widely-deploy one or both of these candidates without at least starting human challenge trials ASAP. Anyone?


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dturm

Lake County, IN

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Posted: 11/16/20 08:39am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Human challenge trials are generally frowned upon from an ethical standpoint. The UK was talking about one a month or so ago. Intentionally exposing people to this disease is extreme.

They are using placebo vaccination in these trials with 30K individuals enrolled.

The statistic evaluation of a 30K trial "should" be sufficient to rule out serious adverse reactions and efficacy of the vaccines.

Of course, millions of doses of vaccine could reveal less common reactions, but right now the risks of a continuing pandemic outweigh the risk of a wide spread use of a properly vetted vaccine.

UK Challenge Trial

* This post was edited 11/16/20 08:47am by dturm *


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silversand

Montreal

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Posted: 11/16/20 09:35am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

dturm wrote:

The statistic evaluation of a 30K trial "should" be sufficient to rule out serious adverse reactions and efficacy of the vaccines.


....acknowledged.

However, in light of the extremely short but massively important impending deployment of hundreds of millions of doses (under the "Emergency Plan"), and, the 90% of apparently uninfected naturally data, wouldn't it be prudent to undergo at the very least, a limited human challenge trial in the interim (without placebo component) ?

I don't see any downside to this, and there are many already willing to take part.

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 11/16/20 09:53am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Only 95 subjects of the 30,000 in the study have gotten sick; 90 of the 15,000 placebo group and 5 of the vaccinated group. These early results look good but a 0.6% infection rate in the placebo group may not be a good assessment of the final effectiveness of any vaccine.

Question: Is the 0.6% infection rate in the placebo group indicative of the exposure rate of all participants to the virus (does the exposure of 90 out of 15,000 vaccinated subjects really test the effectiveness of a vaccine)?

Moderna press release

* This post was edited 11/16/20 10:52am by BCSnob *

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