MEXICOWANDERER
las peñas, michoacan, mexico
Senior Member
Joined: 06/01/2007
View Profile
 Offline
|
Assuming a 90% efficacy
The percentage of those immunized needed to assume Herd Immunity?
|
BCSnob
Middletown, MD
Senior Member
Joined: 02/23/2002
View Profile
|
MEXICOWANDERER wrote:Assuming a 90% efficacy
The percentage of those immunized needed to assume Herd Immunity?
There isn’t a simple answer to your question.
Quote: Is Herd Immunity Against SARS-CoV-2 a Silver Lining?
OPINION ARTICLE
Front. Immunol., 30 September 2020
Assuming an R0 estimate of 5.7, using the mathematical formula 1-1/R0, the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 would be ~82.5%, meaning that the incidence of infection will begin to decline once the proportion of individuals with acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in the population exceeds 82.5%. However, it remains to be noted that the estimate of the proposed threshold is only theoretical with the assumptions of a homogenous population and presence of uniform sterilizing immunity in the recovered patients. Mathematical modeling studies have shown that disease-induced herd immunity threshold would be substantially lower than the values calculated by conventional formula due to the population heterogeneity (16, 17).
Some estimates I’ve read were 60%-70% of the population needs to become immune (by natural infection and/or vaccination) to reach herd immunity. The percentage depends upon how population heterogeneity is defined (mathematically modeled).
|
charlestonsouthern
Summerville, SC
Full Member
Joined: 04/16/2009
View Profile
Good Sam RV Club Member
Offline
|
My Grandfather at age 23 died in the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918. I understand that the population of the US was approximately103 million at that time, and the estimated deaths from the pandemic were 675,000. Since nothing was available to stem the waves of infection (except quarantine), can we assume what we call "herd immunity" today is what our population then had to endure?
|
RobinSm89
Florida
New Member
Joined: 12/02/2020
View Profile
Offline
|
I believe that a vaccine against COVID-19 will be available very soon. And, everything would return to its place. This is one of the worst years in modern history.
|
dturm
Lake County, IN
Moderator
Joined: 01/29/2001
View Profile
Good Sam RV Club Member
Offline
|
There is beginning to be a lot of discussion about vaccination and the effect it will have on the pandemic.
While the prospect of an effective vaccination is great news, it's existence does not mean the pandemic is over.
First it will take months to produce and administer a vaccine to enough people to achieve "herd immunity." Most optimistic estimates are that won't be until the middle of next year.
Second, we don't know if the vaccines prevent infection or just serious disease. Some recent PR materials suggest that vaccinated individuals still got infected but none got serious disease. That's good news, but if people think we can go back to maskless normal behavior it will perpetuate the pandemic.
Personally, I'm looking forward to a "normal" Thanksgiving next year, but not much normal activity before that.
The 60%-70% population immunity is the figure I was taught, but there are so many factors that enter the calculation that it's just an estimate. Also the end is not like an on/off switch, it's more like a dimmer switch that gradually ends us in the off position.
Doug & Sandy
Kaylee (12 year old Terrier of some sort), Sasha 3 yr old Golden
Kaiya at the Rainbow Bridge
2008 Southwind
2009 Honda CRV
Check out blog.rv.net
|
|
|
BCSnob
Middletown, MD
Senior Member
Joined: 02/23/2002
View Profile
|
We also need to keep in mind this is a pandemic, not a disease isolated to just one region. Without reaching herd immunity world wide there will continue to be reservoirs of this virus that could infect those who choose not to be vaccinated in our region.
|
MEXICOWANDERER
las peñas, michoacan, mexico
Senior Member
Joined: 06/01/2007
View Profile
Offline
|
Http://www.bbc.com
England approves Pfizer vaccines and provides ordinal of who gets jabbed starting next week. Keep in mind this is for Great Britain not the United States. The vaccine is free to the inoculated there and not for sale says the Health Ministry. Their AZ vaccine approval is thought to be not far behind for approval. Again this is for England not the USA. Not for Canada.
|
silversand
Montreal
Senior Member
Joined: 09/12/2004
View Profile
|
Mexicowanderer wrote:England approves Pfizer vaccines and provides ordinal of who gets jabbed starting next week.
Yeah. Pretty amazing. The UK is QC-ing 800,000 Pfizer doses presently, to be deployed any day now.
Nothing on AZeneca. That's weird.
Silver
2004 Chevy Silverado 2500HD 4x4 6.0L Ext/LB Tow Package 4L80E Michelin AT2s| Outfitter Caribou
|
BCSnob
Middletown, MD
Senior Member
Joined: 02/23/2002
View Profile
|
Where is the report indicating the UK is “QC-ing” the doses they are receiving; especially considering most QC methods for vialed products are destructive.
|
MEXICOWANDERER
las peñas, michoacan, mexico
Senior Member
Joined: 06/01/2007
View Profile
Offline
|
I am in the OXFORD AZTRAZENECA herd. Figidaire City. 6-months shelf life. Cryo in México? I don't think so. Every day spent quibbling over how someone arrived at a 50% error in 1st dosage of the AZ vaccine is going to cost needlessly lost lives. Someone did a What If? If there was a problem with the serum there would have been a lot of corpses in India and Africa.
|
|
|
