Good Sam Club Open Roads Forum: Around the Campfire: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
Open Roads Forum Already a member? Login here.   If not, Register Today!  |  Help

Newest  |  Active  |  Popular  |  RVing FAQ Forum Rules  |  Forum Posting Help and Support  |  Contact  

Search:   Advanced Search

Search only in Around the Campfire

Open Roads Forum  >  Around the Campfire  >  General Topics

 > 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

Reply to Topic  |  Subscribe  |  Print Page  |  Post New Topic  | 
Page of 97  
Prev  |  Next
MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

Senior Member

Joined: 06/01/2007

View Profile


Offline
Posted: 12/01/20 05:24pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Assuming a 90% efficacy
The percentage of those immunized needed to assume Herd Immunity?

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

Senior Member

Joined: 02/23/2002

View Profile



Posted: 12/01/20 07:22pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

MEXICOWANDERER wrote:

Assuming a 90% efficacy
The percentage of those immunized needed to assume Herd Immunity?

There isn’t a simple answer to your question.
Quote:

Is Herd Immunity Against SARS-CoV-2 a Silver Lining?
OPINION ARTICLE
Front. Immunol., 30 September 2020


Assuming an R0 estimate of 5.7, using the mathematical formula 1-1/R0, the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 would be ~82.5%, meaning that the incidence of infection will begin to decline once the proportion of individuals with acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in the population exceeds 82.5%. However, it remains to be noted that the estimate of the proposed threshold is only theoretical with the assumptions of a homogenous population and presence of uniform sterilizing immunity in the recovered patients. Mathematical modeling studies have shown that disease-induced herd immunity threshold would be substantially lower than the values calculated by conventional formula due to the population heterogeneity (16, 17).


Some estimates I’ve read were 60%-70% of the population needs to become immune (by natural infection and/or vaccination) to reach herd immunity. The percentage depends upon how population heterogeneity is defined (mathematically modeled).

charlestonsouthern

Summerville, SC

Full Member

Joined: 04/16/2009

View Profile



Good Sam RV Club Member

Offline
Posted: 12/01/20 09:26pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

My Grandfather at age 23 died in the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918. I understand that the population of the US was approximately103 million at that time, and the estimated deaths from the pandemic were 675,000. Since nothing was available to stem the waves of infection (except quarantine), can we assume what we call "herd immunity" today is what our population then had to endure?

RobinSm89

Florida

New Member

Joined: 12/02/2020

View Profile


Offline
Posted: 12/02/20 04:59am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I believe that a vaccine against COVID-19 will be available very soon. And, everything would return to its place. This is one of the worst years in modern history.

dturm

Lake County, IN

Moderator

Joined: 01/29/2001

View Profile



Good Sam RV Club Member

Online
Posted: 12/02/20 05:51am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

There is beginning to be a lot of discussion about vaccination and the effect it will have on the pandemic.

While the prospect of an effective vaccination is great news, it's existence does not mean the pandemic is over.

First it will take months to produce and administer a vaccine to enough people to achieve "herd immunity." Most optimistic estimates are that won't be until the middle of next year.

Second, we don't know if the vaccines prevent infection or just serious disease. Some recent PR materials suggest that vaccinated individuals still got infected but none got serious disease. That's good news, but if people think we can go back to maskless normal behavior it will perpetuate the pandemic.

Personally, I'm looking forward to a "normal" Thanksgiving next year, but not much normal activity before that.

The 60%-70% population immunity is the figure I was taught, but there are so many factors that enter the calculation that it's just an estimate. Also the end is not like an on/off switch, it's more like a dimmer switch that gradually ends us in the off position.


Doug & Sandy
Kaylee (12 year old Terrier of some sort), Sasha 3 yr old Golden
Kaiya at the Rainbow Bridge
2008 Southwind
2009 Honda CRV


Check out blog.rv.net


BCSnob

Middletown, MD

Senior Member

Joined: 02/23/2002

View Profile



Posted: 12/02/20 06:55am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

We also need to keep in mind this is a pandemic, not a disease isolated to just one region. Without reaching herd immunity world wide there will continue to be reservoirs of this virus that could infect those who choose not to be vaccinated in our region.

MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

Senior Member

Joined: 06/01/2007

View Profile


Offline
Posted: 12/02/20 06:59am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Http://www.bbc.com

England approves Pfizer vaccines and provides ordinal of who gets jabbed starting next week. Keep in mind this is for Great Britain not the United States. The vaccine is free to the inoculated there and not for sale says the Health Ministry. Their AZ vaccine approval is thought to be not far behind for approval. Again this is for England not the USA. Not for Canada.

silversand

Montreal

Senior Member

Joined: 09/12/2004

View Profile



Posted: 12/02/20 07:43am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Mexicowanderer wrote:

England approves Pfizer vaccines and provides ordinal of who gets jabbed starting next week.


Yeah. Pretty amazing. The UK is QC-ing 800,000 Pfizer doses presently, to be deployed any day now.

Nothing on AZeneca. That's weird.


Silver
2004 Chevy Silverado 2500HD 4x4 6.0L Ext/LB Tow Package 4L80E Michelin AT2s| Outfitter Caribou

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

Senior Member

Joined: 02/23/2002

View Profile



Posted: 12/02/20 08:18am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Where is the report indicating the UK is “QC-ing” the doses they are receiving; especially considering most QC methods for vialed products are destructive.

MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

Senior Member

Joined: 06/01/2007

View Profile


Offline
Posted: 12/02/20 08:57am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I am in the OXFORD AZTRAZENECA herd. Figidaire City. 6-months shelf life. Cryo in México? I don't think so. Every day spent quibbling over how someone arrived at a 50% error in 1st dosage of the AZ vaccine is going to cost needlessly lost lives. Someone did a What If? If there was a problem with the serum there would have been a lot of corpses in India and Africa.

Reply to Topic  |  Subscribe  |  Print Page  |  Post New Topic  | 
Page of 97  
Prev  |  Next

Open Roads Forum  >  Around the Campfire  >  General Topics

 > 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
Search:   Advanced Search

Search only in Around the Campfire


New posts No new posts
Closed, new posts Closed, no new posts
Moved, new posts Moved, no new posts

Adjust text size:




© 2021 CWI, Inc. © 2021 Good Sam Enterprises, LLC. All Rights Reserved.