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rexlion

Broken Arrow OK

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Joined: 04/01/2005

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Posted: 04/10/20 10:49pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

time2roll wrote:

US death rate hits a new record today. Not on the back side of the curve yet.
By "death rate," do you mean total number of deaths? Total deaths from Covid-19 will hit a new record every single day, for months to come, simply because if 1 person dies it's a new high in the total deaths (a new record). So that's meaningless, although it sounds impressive at first blush.


Mike G.
--for now, using a cargo trailer for camping--
Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. --Benjamin Franklin
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rexlion

Broken Arrow OK

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Posted: 04/10/20 10:54pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

NJRVer wrote:

rexlion wrote:

pianotuna wrote:

It is true, however, that Singapore is now having a "2nd wave" of infections after stopping extreme self isolation, so they are having to return to those policies.

As no one has found an effective treatment, we are left with just two options.

1. herd immunity, without a vaccine, may start having an effect at 60% of folks infected. The ugly part of that is 336 M x .6 =~ 202 M cases X 3.4% (taken by dividing today's case count into today's deaths)=~6.8 M deaths.

2. a working vaccine. There are 2 candidates in emergency human trials. Cross your fingers and toes.
Don't you trust Dr. Fauci? Just the other day he stated that the most recent and best estimate is about 60,000 deaths, in total, from Covid-19. Never does an entire population (100%) come down with any particular disease; 15% is much more common. Even with Covid-19, coronaviruses have been around for quite some time so anyone who's had one will most likely possess partial immunity to Covid-19; this is one reason why the vast majority of those who contract the virus have only moderate, mild, or no symptoms. Case fatality rates like the 3.4% vary wildly from day to day as well as from locale to locale; they are the absolute worst number to extrapolate anything from statistically.

It's very easy to panic. I understand that. Everyone should take a deep breath.... hold... and let it out slowly. Try to calm down.



So you assume just because the disease shares the word "Coronavirus" that people would have some immunity to Covid19?

That would be dead wrong thinking.
Well, you can make that claim, but where's your evidence?

Here's mine. Dr. Martin Dubravec MD, an immunologist based in Cadillac MI, wrote this:
Martin Dubravec MD wrote:

Most people don’t get COVID-19. Why?

Testing of high risk people (those who most likely would get COVID-19 due to exposure to confirmed COVID-19 patients or travel from high risk areas) reveal that 90% of patients are testing negative, i.e., they have not evidence of disease. Why is that? Most likely, these patients have pre-existing immunity to the virus from previous exposure to COVID-19 or due to cross-reactive immunity from being infected by related Coronaviruses. Many people have stated that they suffered symptoms of Coronavirus earlier this year. Due to a lack of testing, many people most likely have had exposure to the virus; they have developed immunity to it.

This is why the concept of herd immunity is so important. With herd immunity, significant amounts of the population will have exposure to the virus and become immune to it. They are no longer able to spread the virus as their immune systems kill the virus before it has a chance to grow and multiply. That individual then becomes not a source of viral spread but a source of killing the virus. The virus has nowhere to go and it disappears.
Notice that the immunologist says people who've had "related Coronaviruses" may have "cross-reactive immunity" to Covid-19. It may be partial immunity or even full immunitiy.

JRscooby

Indepmo

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Posted: 04/11/20 06:38am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

westernrvparkowner wrote:

Extreme social distancing may not be as effective as advertised. Take a look at two states that took different approaches, California and Texas. California was one of the first states to take aggressive social distancing measures. Texas was one of the last, and to date has taken a more lax approach to both rules and enforcement. Both states are among the most populous, have large, international cities and have long stretches of an international border as well as a major maritime industry leading to much transient international travel. California has a population of nearly 40 million and Texas about 30 million. To date California has 20,191 confirmed cases and Texas has 11,329. That means one out of every 1981 Californians were infected, yet only one out of every 2648 Texans suffered the same fate despite not having statewide stay at home orders.
Perhaps the right approach to reopening the country is to trust the citizens to do the right thing. If people behave responsibly, take rational steps to protect themselves if they are not sick and isolate themselves if they do become infected much of the country can begin to return to a resemblance of normal very soon. I think most people have a good idea of what they should do. I doubt many people are going to start flocking to concerts, jamming the cruise lines, filling airplanes and immediately restart shaking hands and hugging strangers because restrictions are lifted. While targeted quarantines may be needed for a while, vast areas of the country can start recovering very soon if we put a bit of trust in the people.


How can you compare the number of cases in 2 states without knowing how many, or at least what percentage of the populations have been tested. As long as we are only testing sick people, many of the test will be positive. Medical personal should be sampled every day. Other necessary workers maybe a couple times a week. Once we have a handle on how many of them are infected, we can start testing and letting out the lawyers, bankers, and other unnecessary workers.

TomG2

Central Illinois

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Posted: 04/11/20 07:18am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Trying to define this virus with a point or two on a graph or chart is pure folly. The virus is a living Beast. It can grow or shrink. It can mutate into something far worse, or become as mild as a sniffle. It can kill or spare its victims as it wants. It can hide in the Summer then kill in the Fall. In the words of Smokey Bear, "Only you can prevent virus spread".

NJRVer

NJ

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Posted: 04/11/20 07:53am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

rexlion wrote:

time2roll wrote:

US death rate hits a new record today. Not on the back side of the curve yet.
By "death rate," do you mean total number of deaths? Total deaths from Covid-19 will hit a new record every single day, for months to come, simply because if 1 person dies it's a new high in the total deaths (a new record). So that's meaningless, although it sounds impressive at first blush.




The more people that get the disease, the more people will die.

When less people get the disease, there will be less deaths from the disease.

What's so hard to understand about that?

tomman58

Southeast Michigan

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Posted: 04/11/20 07:55am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

"Don't you trust Dr. Fauci? Just the other day he stated that the most recent and best estimate is about 60,000 deaths, in total, from Covid-19. Never does an entire population (100%) come down with any particular disease; 15% is much more common. Even with Covid-19, coronaviruses have been around for quite some time so anyone who's had one will most likely possess partial immunity to Covid-19; this is one reason why the vast majority of those who contract the virus have only moderate, mild, or no symptoms. Case fatality rates like the 3.4% vary wildly from day to day as well as from locale to locale; they are the absolute worst number to extrapolate anything from statistically."

Dr. Fauci has both feet on the ground and was even recognized by G w Bush for his aide and service to this country with the presidential medal. Bush was scared to death of pandemics and built up stores for controlling them Obama continued this and even warned tRump of the impending doom. Unfortunately he went unheeded.
We are fortunate to have an astute governor that has looked at the government data and disagreed with their rational. She said that the governments curve did not take in those that wouldn't "stay at home" or avoid crowds. The U of M redid the curve and it is worse than earlier reported. We here in Michigan are now under another 30 day "total" shut down to flatten the curve and the Governor and our head Medical person think this is going to continue for months ahead unless we get a shot to keep us from it. They do not think the virus shot will be here for another 18 months.


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Lantley

Ellicott City, Maryland

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Posted: 04/11/20 08:00am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

NJRVer wrote:

rexlion wrote:

time2roll wrote:

US death rate hits a new record today. Not on the back side of the curve yet.
By "death rate," do you mean total number of deaths? Total deaths from Covid-19 will hit a new record every single day, for months to come, simply because if 1 person dies it's a new high in the total deaths (a new record). So that's meaningless, although it sounds impressive at first blush.




The more people that get the disease, the more people will die.

When less people get the disease, there will be less deaths from the disease.

What's so hard to understand about that?


Until we have accurate testing with almost immediate results available to the entire public we cannot restart the economy.
I'm all for restarting the economy ASAP but the restart can't be based on the simple fact that people are broke.
A haphazard restart that allows the virus spread to rekindle itself is foolish.


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bid_time

Michigan

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Posted: 04/11/20 08:57am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Lantley wrote:

NJRVer wrote:

rexlion wrote:

time2roll wrote:

US death rate hits a new record today. Not on the back side of the curve yet.
By "death rate," do you mean total number of deaths? Total deaths from Covid-19 will hit a new record every single day, for months to come, simply because if 1 person dies it's a new high in the total deaths (a new record). So that's meaningless, although it sounds impressive at first blush.




The more people that get the disease, the more people will die.

When less people get the disease, there will be less deaths from the disease.

What's so hard to understand about that?


Until we have accurate testing with almost immediate results available to the entire public we cannot restart the economy.
I'm all for restarting the economy ASAP but the restart can't be based on the simple fact that people are broke.
A haphazard restart that allows the virus spread to rekindle itself is foolish.
Meanwhile we have 16 MILLION people unemployed with some of them trying to decide if the should feed their family and be homeless, or have a home but no food.
Pretty easy when you're as snug as a bug in a rug to say keep it shut down.
When you lose the majority of your income the choices become a little more difficult.





time2roll

Southern California

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Posted: 04/11/20 08:57am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

rexlion wrote:

time2roll wrote:

US death rate hits a new record today. Not on the back side of the curve yet.
By "death rate," do you mean total number of deaths? Total deaths from Covid-19 will hit a new record every single day, for months to come, simply because if 1 person dies it's a new high in the total deaths (a new record). So that's meaningless, although it sounds impressive at first blush.
No. The rate is the daily rate. Total is total.

2035 died yesterday in the US. That is the highest daily rate recorded to date.


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bid_time

Michigan

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Posted: 04/11/20 09:03am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

time2roll wrote:

rexlion wrote:

time2roll wrote:

US death rate hits a new record today. Not on the back side of the curve yet.
By "death rate," do you mean total number of deaths? Total deaths from Covid-19 will hit a new record every single day, for months to come, simply because if 1 person dies it's a new high in the total deaths (a new record). So that's meaningless, although it sounds impressive at first blush.
No. The rate is the daily rate. Total is total.

2035 died yesterday in the US. That is the highest daily rate recorded to date.
But, there were 33,752 new cases yesterday, 12,000+ less then the day before. Deaths lag the onset of Covid by at least a week.
You can expect the number of deaths to increase for a week, even though the number of cases (the backside of the curve) and the number of hospital admittance's are steadily declining.

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