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fj12ryder

Platte City, MO

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Posted: 05/07/21 07:10am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I don't know how much the EV will "evolve" all that much in the next 15 years, they really haven't changed much in the last 15. Tesla came out with their first one in the early 2000's. They are still basically the same vehicle, the batteries are a little better, and the mileage has increased due to better batteies, but not by a huge amount. And really they haven't changed all that much since they first came out in the early part of the last century, still use an electric motor/s powered by onboard batteries.

To me the evolution will have to be in the infrastructure and battery capacity/materials. When your vehicle runs low after 500 miles, and you can stop and charge up in less than 10 minutes, that will be real evolution.


Howard and Peggy

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Posted: 05/07/21 07:47am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Well, it kinda depends on ones definition of progress etc. But yah, I agree, some of it depends on the infrastructure supportinh the vehicle.

Interestingly enough we have owned versions of both vehicles in the picture below. The other thing they don't say is the leaf on the left could fast charge to 80 percent of its range (72 miles) in 30 minutes. Ten years later the Tesla on the right can charge to 80 percent of its range (263 miles or 3 times the range of the leaf on the left) in about 20 minutes. Where will it be in 15 years. Who knows.

[image]

* This post was edited 05/07/21 01:36pm by an administrator/moderator *

Timmo!

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Posted: 05/07/21 09:02am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

OK, I am putting together an numeric analysis and I need to tap into brain trust of those with BEVs.

Based on the following statement, I calculate 1 mile will require 0.333 Kwh of power. Is this accurate?

Electric vehicles need to be plugged in, often for many hours, to fully recharge a depleted battery. As a result, EV owners will most likely choose to charge their vehicle at home while the car is parked in the driveway or garage. Adding an EV to a home’s electrical load will have an impact on the total amount of electricity consumed—i.e., higher monthly electric bills. For example, a typical midsize EV driven 30 miles daily will require about 10 kWh of electricity to be fully recharged each day, or about 300 kWh per month. This load can amount to a 25 to 60 percent increase in monthly electricity consumption for the average household.18

https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/fil........-car-global-warming-emissions-report.pdf

What would be an appropriate rate for a fullsize BEV? Or would it be the same....


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Posted: 05/07/21 09:16am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Timmo! wrote:

OK, I am putting together an numeric analysis and I need to tap into brain trust of those with BEVs.

Based on the following statement, I calculate 1 mile will require 0.333 Kwh of power. Is this accurate?

Electric vehicles need to be plugged in, often for many hours, to fully recharge a depleted battery. As a result, EV owners will most likely choose to charge their vehicle at home while the car is parked in the driveway or garage. Adding an EV to a home’s electrical load will have an impact on the total amount of electricity consumed—i.e., higher monthly electric bills. For example, a typical midsize EV driven 30 miles daily will require about 10 kWh of electricity to be fully recharged each day, or about 300 kWh per month. This load can amount to a 25 to 60 percent increase in monthly electricity consumption for the average household.18

https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/fil........-car-global-warming-emissions-report.pdf

What would be an appropriate rate for a fullsize BEV? Or would it be the same....


Our lifetime average for power to distance is 6.4 kilometres to 1 kWh of electricity. Mostly commuting but maybe 15 percent longer road trips. That changes with the seasons as we travel less in winter. Our commute has shortened somewhat and we only do about 1100 to 1200 kilometres a month now. Our monthly power bill is probably 20 bucks higher than if we didn’t have an EV. We pay about 9 cents per kWh plus tax for hydro. CAD. Hydro is fairly cheap here. The vehicle is about a midsize sedan.

Don’t know if any of that is useful data to you.

Yosemite Sam1

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Posted: 05/07/21 09:40am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Reisender wrote:



I don’t really think there will be a need to outlaw the sale of gas vehicles in 15 or 20 years. I really doubt any manufacturer will be building and compelling or competitive gas car, SUV or light trucks like half tons. Who would they sell them to. In 15 years EV’s will have evolved way past what they are now and they are already superior to gassers on so many levels. Nobody is going to want to buy a stinky, noisy, high maintenance, gutless, clunky, shifty, expensive to fuel vehicle that you can’t fuel at home.

Time will tell.


Market forces may even dictate an earlier timeline if my own family is an indication.

My kids started the EV trend. And now everyone of their siblings will get an EV once their current vehicle is fully amortized.

Then me and my brother(s) have ordered Cybertruck and getting an EV too in their next vehicle purchase.

And, of course, as we know among the Tesla owners, they'll be getting another Tesla as replacement or in an upgrade.

Then there's Europe where everyone and his brother wants a Tesla and Norway (??) where 45% of new car sales are already EV..

* This post was edited 05/07/21 10:58am by Yosemite Sam1 *

RambleOnNW

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Posted: 05/07/21 10:49am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Reisender wrote:


[image]


Curb Weight: 3366_________________________________ 3582 lbs.

Long range:

_________________________________________________ 4065 lbs.

MEXICOWANDERER

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Posted: 05/07/21 01:47pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

The United States is doing double-jointed elastics to go 100% electric while down here about .001% of new cars are battery powered. Outside the very largest population centers you might as well own a fusion powered vehicle because it isn't going anywhere.

It gets worse. Mexican refined gasoline and diesel is high sulfur. My little Mitsubishi engine pukes and convulses on Mexican refined Magna gasoline. The diesel runs great but it is 100+ ppm sulfur.

So when USA hydrocarbon production scales back, the amount of emissions here will quintuple. There is absolutely zero chance CFE can increase production and distribution to meet more than two or three percent increase in kWh demand. Fully 45% of rural power generation is done by locomotive engine powered generators authorized to use 800 ppm high sulfur diesel.

My fear is this country is going to be forced to turn to China to build an ultra modern refinery that produces 5ppm diesel and 2 ppm gasoline. Both are new standards.

The concept reminds me of a man holding a fire extinguisher sticking his tongue out at an approaching forest fire.

Yosemite Sam1

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Posted: 05/07/21 04:28pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Mexico and Venezuela must be refining their crude in Texas before they can export their finished products to the US.

Bobbo

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Posted: 05/07/21 07:51pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

"Hence, the need for government mandates. BEVs will become more widespread when it is illegal to buy anything else."



Then, why the government mandates?

* This post was edited 05/08/21 09:05am by an administrator/moderator *


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Posted: 05/07/21 08:13pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Exactly.

* This post was edited 05/08/21 09:03am by an administrator/moderator *

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