RV Production - Fuel prices - Bubble ready to burst?

[BobsYourUncle]

I found this article in my news feed this morning, an analysis of RV production, the pandemic, rising fuel costs etc.
And some interesting RV production numbers.

Food for thought for us:

RV Production news article

[udidwht]

Microlite Mike wrote:

wapiticountry wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:

BB_TX wrote:
At least in this area, I think RV sales will be bolstered by those priced out of the housing market and are buying, or considering buying, RVs to live in.

While there are certainly some, people buying an RV to live in are not a significant part of the new RV sales market. That's media hype where they over represent them as a scare story.

Realistically, the people you are talking about are moving into apartments or mobilehome parks.

Of course, I'm betting the realestate market takes a dump in the next 6-12 months (maybe sooner)

Why would real estate take a dump? Very few people actually need to sell. Unless unemployment suddenly surges people can make their current mortgage payments since almost all of those mortgages are fixed rate and not effected by interest rate increases. Rental rates are also rising, so selling a home to move to a rental isn’t attractive. Plus there is a multi million unit shortfall of single family homes. Sales may very well slow significantly and the days of each consecutive sale being 20% higher than the last may have ended but expecting a huge price drops is an expectation likely to be left unfulfilled.

Prices in the housing market may drop in some segments but not in others. I have a house I've lived in for 20 years and it's market value is beyond many. It's not "first house" valued but rather for those in the market who have money in hand and are able to make cash offers. Some of them are Corporations that are buying higher priced houses and then renting them. Many houses in the same community have been purchased by these Corporations after only a few days on the market.

That said, it will be something my kids will have to deal with when they inherit it.

If people want some insight into what will happen with automobiles and RV's if fuel prices keep up the recent trend, and follow projections, look back to the mid 70's when the price of gas suddenly rose from around $0.35 per gallon to over $1. Unless car dealers had an import, economy car line (usually foreign made), many shuttered the doors and turned out the lights. The lucky ones were bought up by the big, multi-state dealer groups.

The housing market will fall because many of the hot market cities are grossly over inflated. Some as much as 50+ percent (Seattle area is a great example).

[BB_TX]

valhalla360 wrote:

BB_TX wrote:
At least in this area, I think RV sales will be bolstered by those priced out of the housing market and are buying, or considering buying, RVs to live in.

While there are certainly some, people buying an RV to live in are not a significant part of the new RV sales market. That's media hype where they over represent them as a scare story.

Realistically, the people you are talking about are moving into apartments or mobilehome parks.

Of course, I'm betting the realestate market takes a dump in the next 6-12 months (maybe sooner)

Could be true. But there is an amazing number of new rv parks popping up all around this area from small 8-10 space to larger 25+ space and they fill as soon as they open. Most are on smaller roads off the beaten path with no tourist destinations any where close. But they are within a reasonable drive to jobs and shopping. A drive thru the country seems to add another one or two every few months. Sold our 5er a year ago to a couple who planned to live in it. Didn’t even have a truck to tow it. I delivered it to a local rv park.

[Microlite_Mike]

wapiticountry wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:

BB_TX wrote:
At least in this area, I think RV sales will be bolstered by those priced out of the housing market and are buying, or considering buying, RVs to live in.

While there are certainly some, people buying an RV to live in are not a significant part of the new RV sales market. That's media hype where they over represent them as a scare story.

Realistically, the people you are talking about are moving into apartments or mobilehome parks.

Of course, I'm betting the realestate market takes a dump in the next 6-12 months (maybe sooner)

Why would real estate take a dump? Very few people actually need to sell. Unless unemployment suddenly surges people can make their current mortgage payments since almost all of those mortgages are fixed rate and not effected by interest rate increases. Rental rates are also rising, so selling a home to move to a rental isn’t attractive. Plus there is a multi million unit shortfall of single family homes. Sales may very well slow significantly and the days of each consecutive sale being 20% higher than the last may have ended but expecting a huge price drops is an expectation likely to be left unfulfilled.

Prices in the housing market may drop in some segments but not in others. I have a house I've lived in for 20 years and it's market value is beyond many. It's not "first house" valued but rather for those in the market who have money in hand and are able to make cash offers. Some of them are Corporations that are buying higher priced houses and then renting them. Many houses in the same community have been purchased by these Corporations after only a few days on the market.

That said, it will be something my kids will have to deal with when they inherit it.

If people want some insight into what will happen with automobiles and RV's if fuel prices keep up the recent trend, and follow projections, look back to the mid 70's when the price of gas suddenly rose from around $0.35 per gallon to over $1. Unless car dealers had an import, economy car line (usually foreign made), many shuttered the doors and turned out the lights. The lucky ones were bought up by the big, multi-state dealer groups.

[wapiticountry]

valhalla360 wrote:

BB_TX wrote:
At least in this area, I think RV sales will be bolstered by those priced out of the housing market and are buying, or considering buying, RVs to live in.

While there are certainly some, people buying an RV to live in are not a significant part of the new RV sales market. That's media hype where they over represent them as a scare story.

Realistically, the people you are talking about are moving into apartments or mobilehome parks.

Of course, I'm betting the realestate market takes a dump in the next 6-12 months (maybe sooner)

Why would real estate take a dump? Very few people actually need to sell. Unless unemployment suddenly surges people can make their current mortgage payments since almost all of those mortgages are fixed rate and not effected by interest rate increases. Rental rates are also rising, so selling a home to move to a rental isn’t attractive. Plus there is a multi million unit shortfall of single family homes. Sales may very well slow significantly and the days of each consecutive sale being 20% higher than the last may have ended but expecting a huge price drops is an expectation likely to be left unfulfilled.

[afidel]

Josh Haylett now of Bish's RV went over this in his last industry update. The good news is that most of the parts shortages are now resolved so no more units going out with stuff missing or swapped for crappier components. Dune manufacturers are reducing shifts, some are laying workers off, and a few are just slowing the lines down which should hopefully up their quality to pre-pandemic rates. The nearly monthly wholesale cost increases have stopped, but the manufacturers haven't brought back the dealer volume but discounts yet, that'll likely happen this fall when orders slow even more, that's when new and therefore used pricing will quickly fall (it'll be interesting to see where they land, like gas prices I bet they settle higher than they did before this all started).

[time2roll]

Been a surge. I expect a transitional decline to a more sustainable level. Not going to "burst"
This for both RV purchase and fuel prices.

[shelbyfv]

When/if the RV bubble bursts, maybe the tow vehicle bubble will follow. Wouldn't complain if I could find a new truck w/o a year long wait.

[JimK-NY]

The article does not seem to have any facts to back up what "could" or "may" happen. I don't have any facts either way, but in my area high gas prices do not seem to have any impact. The traffic is worse than ever. Drivers are certainly not slowing down to conserve gas. Starting with Covid, the traffic cops stopped pulling people over for speeding. The flow of traffic on the Interstates still is about 20 mph over the posted speed limit.

[valhalla360]

BB_TX wrote:
At least in this area, I think RV sales will be bolstered by those priced out of the housing market and are buying, or considering buying, RVs to live in.

While there are certainly some, people buying an RV to live in are not a significant part of the new RV sales market. That's media hype where they over represent them as a scare story.

Realistically, the people you are talking about are moving into apartments or mobilehome parks.

Of course, I'm betting the realestate market takes a dump in the next 6-12 months (maybe sooner)

[pianotuna]

Hi,

Interesting that they only did 50,000 k (30,000 miles) over 7 years. I've done 214,000 k since 2009.

I'm definitely curtailing my trips. This year, so far, I've only done 3000 k (2000 miles). There may be another 3000 in the fall--but this is all work related where hotels, if there are any, are not desirable places to stay.

But as for snowbirding this year, it will not happen. Current cost is $0.63 per kilometer in my class C.

[bgum]

The market has softened. Fuel prices is only a contributing factor.

[Lwiddis]

Another one of those "writers" who think RVing is all about cost of RVs vs. hotels.

"The cost of filling Aller-Stead's 40-foot diesel bus has more than doubled in the last year, so the matrix now involves potentially driving and paying for a hotel room, which could cost less in certain situations."

[WinMinnie02]

Media hype to drum up sales during pandemic, again the hype to encourage sales expecting prices to fall. Salesman on this forum and others laughing all the way to the bank.

[BB_TX]

At least in this area, I think RV sales will be bolstered by those priced out of the housing market and are buying, or considering buying, RVs to live in.