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 > RV Production - Fuel prices - Bubble ready to burst?

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afidel

Cleveland

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Posted: 07/05/22 02:36pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Josh Haylett now of Bish's RV went over this in his last industry update. The good news is that most of the parts shortages are now resolved so no more units going out with stuff missing or swapped for crappier components. Dune manufacturers are reducing shifts, some are laying workers off, and a few are just slowing the lines down which should hopefully up their quality to pre-pandemic rates. The nearly monthly wholesale cost increases have stopped, but the manufacturers haven't brought back the dealer volume but discounts yet, that'll likely happen this fall when orders slow even more, that's when new and therefore used pricing will quickly fall (it'll be interesting to see where they land, like gas prices I bet they settle higher than they did before this all started).


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wapiticountry

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Posted: 07/05/22 03:39pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

valhalla360 wrote:

BB_TX wrote:

At least in this area, I think RV sales will be bolstered by those priced out of the housing market and are buying, or considering buying, RVs to live in.


While there are certainly some, people buying an RV to live in are not a significant part of the new RV sales market. That's media hype where they over represent them as a scare story.

Realistically, the people you are talking about are moving into apartments or mobilehome parks.

Of course, I'm betting the realestate market takes a dump in the next 6-12 months (maybe sooner)
Why would real estate take a dump? Very few people actually need to sell. Unless unemployment suddenly surges people can make their current mortgage payments since almost all of those mortgages are fixed rate and not effected by interest rate increases. Rental rates are also rising, so selling a home to move to a rental isn’t attractive. Plus there is a multi million unit shortfall of single family homes. Sales may very well slow significantly and the days of each consecutive sale being 20% higher than the last may have ended but expecting a huge price drops is an expectation likely to be left unfulfilled.

Microlite Mike

NW Washington State

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Posted: 07/05/22 06:03pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

wapiticountry wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:

BB_TX wrote:

At least in this area, I think RV sales will be bolstered by those priced out of the housing market and are buying, or considering buying, RVs to live in.


While there are certainly some, people buying an RV to live in are not a significant part of the new RV sales market. That's media hype where they over represent them as a scare story.

Realistically, the people you are talking about are moving into apartments or mobilehome parks.

Of course, I'm betting the realestate market takes a dump in the next 6-12 months (maybe sooner)
Why would real estate take a dump? Very few people actually need to sell. Unless unemployment suddenly surges people can make their current mortgage payments since almost all of those mortgages are fixed rate and not effected by interest rate increases. Rental rates are also rising, so selling a home to move to a rental isn’t attractive. Plus there is a multi million unit shortfall of single family homes. Sales may very well slow significantly and the days of each consecutive sale being 20% higher than the last may have ended but expecting a huge price drops is an expectation likely to be left unfulfilled.


Prices in the housing market may drop in some segments but not in others. I have a house I've lived in for 20 years and it's market value is beyond many. It's not "first house" valued but rather for those in the market who have money in hand and are able to make cash offers. Some of them are Corporations that are buying higher priced houses and then renting them. Many houses in the same community have been purchased by these Corporations after only a few days on the market.

That said, it will be something my kids will have to deal with when they inherit it.

If people want some insight into what will happen with automobiles and RV's if fuel prices keep up the recent trend, and follow projections, look back to the mid 70's when the price of gas suddenly rose from around $0.35 per gallon to over $1. Unless car dealers had an import, economy car line (usually foreign made), many shuttered the doors and turned out the lights. The lucky ones were bought up by the big, multi-state dealer groups.


"Knowledge is realizing that the street is one-way, wisdom is looking both directions anyway."


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BB_TX

McKinney, Texas

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Posted: 07/05/22 06:46pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

valhalla360 wrote:

BB_TX wrote:

At least in this area, I think RV sales will be bolstered by those priced out of the housing market and are buying, or considering buying, RVs to live in.


While there are certainly some, people buying an RV to live in are not a significant part of the new RV sales market. That's media hype where they over represent them as a scare story.

Realistically, the people you are talking about are moving into apartments or mobilehome parks.

Of course, I'm betting the realestate market takes a dump in the next 6-12 months (maybe sooner)

Could be true. But there is an amazing number of new rv parks popping up all around this area from small 8-10 space to larger 25+ space and they fill as soon as they open. Most are on smaller roads off the beaten path with no tourist destinations any where close. But they are within a reasonable drive to jobs and shopping. A drive thru the country seems to add another one or two every few months. Sold our 5er a year ago to a couple who planned to live in it. Didn’t even have a truck to tow it. I delivered it to a local rv park.

udidwht

Seattle

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Posted: 07/18/22 03:08am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Microlite Mike wrote:

wapiticountry wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:

BB_TX wrote:

At least in this area, I think RV sales will be bolstered by those priced out of the housing market and are buying, or considering buying, RVs to live in.


While there are certainly some, people buying an RV to live in are not a significant part of the new RV sales market. That's media hype where they over represent them as a scare story.

Realistically, the people you are talking about are moving into apartments or mobilehome parks.

Of course, I'm betting the realestate market takes a dump in the next 6-12 months (maybe sooner)
Why would real estate take a dump? Very few people actually need to sell. Unless unemployment suddenly surges people can make their current mortgage payments since almost all of those mortgages are fixed rate and not effected by interest rate increases. Rental rates are also rising, so selling a home to move to a rental isn’t attractive. Plus there is a multi million unit shortfall of single family homes. Sales may very well slow significantly and the days of each consecutive sale being 20% higher than the last may have ended but expecting a huge price drops is an expectation likely to be left unfulfilled.


Prices in the housing market may drop in some segments but not in others. I have a house I've lived in for 20 years and it's market value is beyond many. It's not "first house" valued but rather for those in the market who have money in hand and are able to make cash offers. Some of them are Corporations that are buying higher priced houses and then renting them. Many houses in the same community have been purchased by these Corporations after only a few days on the market.

That said, it will be something my kids will have to deal with when they inherit it.

If people want some insight into what will happen with automobiles and RV's if fuel prices keep up the recent trend, and follow projections, look back to the mid 70's when the price of gas suddenly rose from around $0.35 per gallon to over $1. Unless car dealers had an import, economy car line (usually foreign made), many shuttered the doors and turned out the lights. The lucky ones were bought up by the big, multi-state dealer groups.


The housing market will fall because many of the hot market cities are grossly over inflated. Some as much as 50+ percent (Seattle area is a great example).


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