Goodnight Irene, the party's over.

[Pbutler97]

Decline in RV shipments over the last 4 months.
July -33.4%
August -36.0%
September -48.5%
October -43.7%

That's a 40.4% overall decline over 4 months.







FAIRFAX, Va. – Results for the RV Industry Association’s October 2022 survey of manufacturers determined that total RV shipments ended the month with 32,652 units, a decrease of (-43.7%) compared to the 57,971 units shipped in October 2021. Through October, RV shipments are down (-12.2%) compared to the same point last year with 448,246 wholesale shipments.

“As we enter the holiday season, shipments of RVs continue to normalize from last year’s record production,” said RV Industry Association President & CEO Craig Kirby. “The RV industry is still on track to deliver a Top 5 year. And with our latest research showing over 15 million Americans planning to go RVing between Thanksgiving and New Year’s, it’s clear our industry is delivering an incredible way for friends and families to enjoy the holidays together in the outdoors.”

(Hows that for sugar coating bad news LOL?)


Towable RVs, led by conventional travel trailers, ended the month down (-48.3%) against last October with 27,329 shipments. Motorhomes finished the month up 4.1% compared to the same month last year with 5,323 units.

Park Model RVs finished October up 43.2% compared to the same month last year, with 507 wholesale shipments. To date, park model RVs are up 16.5% with 3,947 shipments.

Below you will find charts showing 2021/2022 month over month total wholesale RV and Park Model shipments. Click here to view the October 2022 shipment numbers published on the RV Industry Association website and click here to view our Shipment Report in PDF format.


LINK

[dedmiston]

It feels like we've milked all the constructive conversation out of this thread that we could ever expect.

I think shelbyfv said what most of us have been thinking, so let's sign off the conversation with his (her?) words...

shelbyfv wrote:
The forum rules are clear, no politics. Yet you don't miss a chance for a snipe. We shouldn't have any reason to know another member's politics, same as religion. I'm surprised the mods haven't already tossed you and your bro. Contribution seems minor compared to the drama y'all like to generate.

[Grit_dog]

shelbyfv wrote:

Pbutler97 wrote:
I've belonged to a fair number of forums and have never seen the type of moderation that happens here, where posts vanish into thin air with no apparent violation of anything. I'm quite sure a lot get deleted by some as it goes against their personal opinions and beliefs.

I appreciate the moderation. IMO it could be stronger. You and a couple of others could post your observations about RV sales, campground vacancies, etc w/o being compelled to add your thoughts as to why things are as they are. The forum rules are clear, no politics. Yet you don't miss a chance for a snipe. We shouldn't have any reason to know another member's politics, same as religion. I'm surprised the mods haven't already tossed you and your bro. Contribution seems minor compared to the drama y'all like to generate.

Lol! Whatevs

Who’d you used to be Pbutler?

[shelbyfv]

Pbutler97 wrote:
I've belonged to a fair number of forums and have never seen the type of moderation that happens here, where posts vanish into thin air with no apparent violation of anything. I'm quite sure a lot get deleted by some as it goes against their personal opinions and beliefs.

I appreciate the moderation. IMO it could be stronger. You and a couple of others could post your observations about RV sales, campground vacancies, etc w/o being compelled to add your thoughts as to why things are as they are. The forum rules are clear, no politics. Yet you don't miss a chance for a snipe. We shouldn't have any reason to know another member's politics, same as religion. I'm surprised the mods haven't already tossed you and your bro. Contribution seems minor compared to the drama y'all like to generate.

[Grit_dog]

^And will change again. And again.
To be fair sounds like your friends who couldn’t afford to full time RV probably didn’t have the preparation or means to begin with. Considering the massive consumer inflation didn’t hit until this year. (I saw it hit hard mid 2021 with industry and raw materials but consumer prices were not bad yet last year)

[restlessways]

A little more anecdotal evidence: I know somebody who sold their house with pie in the sky dreams of living in an (expensive) brand new RV and traveling around through their retirement years. They didn't even last 2 years. They sold the rig and bought another house. Why? They grossly underestimated the cost and hassle of such a life.

I started traveling around a lot during the last recession, 2008-2009 era, continuing on until 2013. I could stop anywhere without reservations and they'd roll out the red carpet. All offered not only weekly discounts, but very affordable monthly rates. I could stay in gorgeous places for $350-$600 per month. These days, those places are anywhere from $1,100 to $2,000 per month. To me, it makes zero sense.

One of the things I loved most about RVing was it was much cheaper than renting a house, and I could move around and see all sorts of new areas. That ship sailed. For me, I have lost interest in the traveling part, which is why I only use my private camp site during the summer.

One last thing - I remember during the depths of the last housing bust talking to a guy who owned an RV Resort in California. He was desperately trying to sell it but had no interest at all. His revenue had gone to almost zero. He told me he wished he had never bought it, that it was like a white elephant. My, how things change.

[dedmiston]

Pbutler97 wrote:
"MOD'S EDIT: Cleaned out some of the political stuff."

Wow, an actual explanation? I'm shocked. Thanks.

Usually it's an under the radar edit or simply a silent delete of the entire post.

I've belonged to a fair number of forums and have never seen the type of moderation that happens here, where posts vanish into thin air with no apparent violation of anything. I'm quite sure a lot get deleted by some as it goes against their personal opinions and beliefs.

To be fair, you started off pretty rough here, to the point where you got booted and had to restart with a new identity (which typically isn't permitted). You seem pretty intelligent to me and you strike me as a guy who knows when he's coloring outside the lines (like with your profile sig.). Most of the mods don't bother with an explanation for you since you probably already know better.

Anyway, back to your topic...

[Bobbo]

restlessways wrote:

SJ-Chris wrote:


For the last ~12 years, interest rates have been at/near historic lows. Interest rates are high now relative to the last 12 years. But interest rates are nowhere near historic highs. Let's hope they don't go up too much further.

-Chris

Why would we hope that? Inflation is tearing the entire economy a new rectum. To stop raising rates would be to say "gee, let's just destroy the currency and the country by way of hyperinflation." Not a good thing to hope for.

What I would HOPE he meant is "let's hope inflation is reduced to where interest rates don't have to go up too much further."

[Pbutler97]

Grit dog wrote:

restlessways wrote:
I own a private campsite where I use my 5th wheel in the summer. I don't leave it there, but rather haul it to a storage unit before heading back to my winter house. I usually stay at an RV Resort for a week or two while I winterize it, empty it out, etc. The last couple years the RV Resort was packed to the gills. This year, it was like a ghost town. It was emptier than I've ever seen it in the last 10 years.

Another person who understands what’s happening…
Must not be part of the left coast club.
Same experience here btw.
We don’t get to camp or vacation much, still in the middle age phase of life, but have been going to the same park(s) and lakes each summer now for about 5-6 years.
FAR less people this summer than in any of the 2017-2020 years, although 2020 was also pretty tame as the Rona hadn’t released its paranoid grip it had on so many peoples brains yet.
This year was traffic seems like normal but far less expensive activities taking place. 2020 was more RVs than 2022 but less people out, in general. And this was/is in WY and MT where life didn’t shut down due to the widespread fear and panic that was present in many other locations.

This year has been all about the dollar. Even with the economy appearing to still be full steam ahead until just the last few months, the start of the recovery from the mistakes of 2020 and 2021 is just beginning. And it won’t be pretty for some. Far worse than the false “unemployment” phase of 2020 where everyone who didn’t “want” to have a job and was looking for an excuse for more free stuff, got it, in bushel baskets….
Now, unlike 2020, there will be actual cutbacks and real unemployment issues which will hit harder than the fabricated ones of a couple years ago.


MOD'S EDIT: Cleaned out some of the political stuff.

"MOD'S EDIT: Cleaned out some of the political stuff."

Wow, an actual explanation? I'm shocked. Thanks.

Usually it's an under the radar edit or simply a silent delete of the entire post.

I've belonged to a fair number of forums and have never seen the type of moderation that happens here, where posts vanish into thin air with no apparent violation of anything. I'm quite sure a lot get deleted by some as it goes against their personal opinions and beliefs.

[Grit_dog]

restlessways wrote:
I own a private campsite where I use my 5th wheel in the summer. I don't leave it there, but rather haul it to a storage unit before heading back to my winter house. I usually stay at an RV Resort for a week or two while I winterize it, empty it out, etc. The last couple years the RV Resort was packed to the gills. This year, it was like a ghost town. It was emptier than I've ever seen it in the last 10 years.

Another person who understands what’s happening…
Must not be part of the left coast club.
Same experience here btw.
We don’t get to camp or vacation much, still in the middle age phase of life, but have been going to the same park(s) and lakes each summer now for about 5-6 years.
FAR less people this summer than in any of the 2017-2020 years, although 2020 was also pretty tame as the Rona hadn’t released its paranoid grip it had on so many peoples brains yet.
This year was traffic seems like normal but far less expensive activities taking place. 2020 was more RVs than 2022 but less people out, in general. And this was/is in WY and MT where life didn’t shut down due to the widespread fear and panic that was present in many other locations.

This year has been all about the dollar. Even with the economy appearing to still be full steam ahead until just the last few months, the start of the recovery from the mistakes of 2020 and 2021 is just beginning. And it won’t be pretty for some. Far worse than the false “unemployment” phase of 2020 where everyone who didn’t “want” to have a job and was looking for an excuse for more free stuff, got it, in bushel baskets….
Now, unlike 2020, there will be actual cutbacks and real unemployment issues which will hit harder than the fabricated ones of a couple years ago.


MOD'S EDIT: Cleaned out some of the political stuff.

[Pbutler97]

"The overall RV dealer sentiment score in June was 26 out of 100, down 54% from the score in April when dealers rated the current industry market condition at 57. The June score is the lowest level since 2009.

When dealers looked out 3 to 5 years, the score rose to 47. That was up 8 points from the 39 score in April, but still showed a negative outlook. It’s only the second time the 3- to 5-year outlook has been negative since the index began in 2006."

Link


That was in June before the the 40+% drop in shipments over the last 4 months.

[restlessways]

Chum lee wrote:
No news here. (or rocket science) In my entire lifetime, (now approaching 70 years) every time the price of fuel spikes or the availability becomes questionable, the sale and value of fuel guzzlers plummets. I don't need industry experts to tell me that. Eventually the market always adjusts. The question is . . . when, . . . , and, . . . can you wait it out?

Chum lee

I think the used, older big Class A motorhome sales are really getting hammered. Same with older fuel guzzling boats like early model trawlers with twin diesels.

[restlessways]

SJ-Chris wrote:


For the last ~12 years, interest rates have been at/near historic lows. Interest rates are high now relative to the last 12 years. But interest rates are nowhere near historic highs. Let's hope they don't go up too much further.

-Chris

Why would we hope that? Inflation is tearing the entire economy a new rectum. To stop raising rates would be to say "gee, let's just destroy the currency and the country by way of hyperinflation." Not a good thing to hope for.

[restlessways]

I own a private campsite where I use my 5th wheel in the summer. I don't leave it there, but rather haul it to a storage unit before heading back to my winter house. I usually stay at an RV Resort for a week or two while I winterize it, empty it out, etc. The last couple years the RV Resort was packed to the gills. This year, it was like a ghost town. It was emptier than I've ever seen it in the last 10 years.

[theoldwizard1]

pianotuna wrote:

TurnThePage wrote:
Build quality is in the toilet. Hopefully these latest units will be a little better.

Quality control and RV should not be mentioned in the same sentence.

Truth !