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 > Wonder if truck makers will start making 10001 # 1/2 tons.

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otrfun

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Posted: 03/01/21 10:02am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Reisender wrote:

otrfun wrote:

There are many details that remain to be worked out---but, the writing certainly appears on the wall: day-to-day commuters looking to purchase a new vehicle in 15 years or so will probably have their choices limited solely to EV's.

With that being said, got to wonder how manufacturers (and lawmakers) will address the production of *new*, recreational vehicles and TV's (specifically those with a GVWR >10k) in 15 years?
EV’s are changing so fast right now. I very much doubt there will be a market for gasser cars or light duty trucks in 2035. Who’s going to want to buy a clunky, gutless, noisy, stinky, high maintenance, inconvenient, expensive to fuel gasser that you have to fuel at a gas station.

Not everybody has the same driving needs, but we are pretty average and for our needs there isn’t anything a gasser can do that our EV can’t do better. What’s it going to be like after 15 more years of development.

I’m sure there will still be a market for some applications of gas and diesel vehicles, but it’s going to be a different landscape. Any kid growing up in an EV household will never, not ever choose a gasser over electric. There would have to be a ton of improvements in gas vehicles before somebody went backwards, and I don’t see companies like ford or GM throwing lots of money at it when the writing is on the wall.

All JMHO.
I wonder what will happen to the resale value of Class 2/3/4 diesel trucks when the Big 3 announce they will no longer spend R&D funds on future FF development. No more torque wars [emoticon] No doubt this will probably be announced sometime in the next 10 years or so.

Will the resale value of these Class 2/3/4 diesel trucks 1) go up because they will be prized for their range and power, or 2) will their resale value drop because battery technology will provide the same range and power?

Or, will large RV's be a thing of the past? Will the RV industry be forced to copy the European model?

* This post was edited 03/01/21 10:22am by otrfun *

RobWNY

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Posted: 03/01/21 10:41am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

free radical wrote:

RobWNY wrote:

They have to make these EV make noise. People don't pay attention now! Everyone walking down the street has their head down staring at their cell phone or their ear buds in. In 15 years, who knows what the high tech thing will be occupying everyone's attention. It's a recipe for disaster for pedestrians and bicyclists to have vehicles that are basically silent.


Shouldnt be too dificult [emoticon]

https://youtu.be/4NgSZ8sjDgU

That sound made me start singing "Meet George Jetson... His Boy Elroy...Daughter Judy...Jane his wife." LOL


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Posted: 03/01/21 11:04am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

RobWNY wrote:

free radical wrote:

RobWNY wrote:

They have to make these EV make noise. People don't pay attention now! Everyone walking down the street has their head down staring at their cell phone or their ear buds in. In 15 years, who knows what the high tech thing will be occupying everyone's attention. It's a recipe for disaster for pedestrians and bicyclists to have vehicles that are basically silent.


Shouldnt be too dificult [emoticon]

https://youtu.be/4NgSZ8sjDgU

That sound made me start singing "Meet George Jetson... His Boy Elroy...Daughter Judy...Jane his wife." LOL


[emoticon]

With my wifes Tesla you can substitute the outside noise with a wave file. She uses the knightrider woosh woosh sound with the theme song in the background. Gets laughs in parking lots when we summon the car. People kind of freak out when they see a car driving up to the front of home depot with nobody in the drivers seat. Way fun. [emoticon]

RoyJ

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Posted: 03/01/21 01:24pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

otrfun wrote:

I wonder what will happen to the resale value of Class 2/3/4 diesel trucks when the Big 3 announce they will no longer spend R&D funds on future FF development. No more torque wars [emoticon] No doubt this will probably be announced sometime in the next 10 years or so.

Will the resale value of these Class 2/3/4 diesel trucks 1) go up because they will be prized for their range and power, or 2) will their resale value drop because battery technology will provide the same range and power?

Or, will large RV's be a thing of the past? Will the RV industry be forced to copy the European model?


I'm afraid of the latter. It'll be a while before an affordable battery pack can replace fossil fuel for towing / constant power applications.

A Model 3 may take 10hp (7.46 kW) doing a slow 55 mph cruise, which is why EVs will quickly replace all commuters.

But an 18k toy hauler probably requires an average 100kw at freeway speeds. Even with 200 kWh pack, we're talking 2 hours before recharging. Then factor in the fact that commutes are nearly always less than a hour, while annual camping trips are almost always further than 2 hrs. HD pickups may be a niche where EVs application doesn't work so well.

You'll need a

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Posted: 03/01/21 01:40pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

RoyJ wrote:

otrfun wrote:

I wonder what will happen to the resale value of Class 2/3/4 diesel trucks when the Big 3 announce they will no longer spend R&D funds on future FF development. No more torque wars [emoticon] No doubt this will probably be announced sometime in the next 10 years or so.

Will the resale value of these Class 2/3/4 diesel trucks 1) go up because they will be prized for their range and power, or 2) will their resale value drop because battery technology will provide the same range and power?

Or, will large RV's be a thing of the past? Will the RV industry be forced to copy the European model?


I'm afraid of the latter. It'll be a while before an affordable battery pack can replace fossil fuel for towing / constant power applications.

A Model 3 may take 10hp (7.46 kW) doing a slow 55 mph cruise, which is why EVs will quickly replace all commuters.

But an 18k toy hauler probably requires an average 100kw at freeway speeds. Even with 200 kWh pack, we're talking 2 hours before recharging. Then factor in the fact that commutes are nearly always less than a hour, while annual camping trips are almost always further than 2 hrs. HD pickups may be a niche where EVs application doesn't work so well.

You'll need a


I tend to agree. But those with deeper pockets may get something like Tesla’s baby semi. That would work. Depending how people tour the charge time might not be an issue. Wouldn’t be for us. Then again. A long day on the road in the Motorhome for us is 600 km.

Just sayin.

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Posted: 03/01/21 04:20pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Reisender wrote:


I tend to agree. But those with deeper pockets may get something like Tesla’s baby semi. That would work. Depending how people tour the charge time might not be an issue. Wouldn’t be for us. Then again. A long day on the road in the Motorhome for us is 600 km.

Just sayin.


If we're willing to do a lifestyle change, like adapting to Euro / Aussie "caravans", then a 200 kWh tow rig could work.

I'd imagine a 4000 lbs folding travel trailer (same height as the truck), will push power requirements below 50kW. That's 4 hour or ~280 mile range @ 70 mph. Drop cruising speed to 55 mph and we may squeeze out 350 miles.

Then, as long as you stay in an RV camp, you'd have roughly 4kW of charging power. Stay 2 - 3 days and you can travel again.

But getting North Americans to accept a smaller trailers and 55 mph speeds would be the hardest part...

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Posted: 03/01/21 04:29pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

RoyJ wrote:

Reisender wrote:


I tend to agree. But those with deeper pockets may get something like Tesla’s baby semi. That would work. Depending how people tour the charge time might not be an issue. Wouldn’t be for us. Then again. A long day on the road in the Motorhome for us is 600 km.

Just sayin.


If we're willing to do a lifestyle change, like adapting to Euro / Aussie "caravans", then a 200 kWh tow rig could work.

I'd imagine a 4000 lbs folding travel trailer (same height as the truck), will push power requirements below 50kW. That's 4 hour or ~280 mile range @ 70 mph. Drop cruising speed to 55 mph and we may squeeze out 350 miles.

Then, as long as you stay in an RV camp, you'd have roughly 4kW of charging power. Stay 2 - 3 days and you can travel again.

But getting North Americans to accept a smaller trailers and 55 mph speeds would be the hardest part...


Yah I hear ya. But then again, we never tow over 90 KMH anyway. And in California its the law at 55 mph for towing.

Funny. Our old GMC 3/4 ton with a 350 could never tow our little fifth wheel more than 200 miles without needing a gas station. We towed across the country to quebec city once. Holy carp. There was some serious range anxiety in northern ontario. Gas stations can be scarce up there. [emoticon] That thing was pure junk. We sold it right about the end of the 3 year warranty.

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Posted: 03/01/21 04:37pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

RoyJ wrote:

I'm afraid of the latter. It'll be a while before an affordable battery pack can replace fossil fuel for towing / constant power applications.

A Model 3 may take 10hp (7.46 kW) doing a slow 55 mph cruise, which is why EVs will quickly replace all commuters.

But an 18k toy hauler probably requires an average 100kw at freeway speeds. Even with 200 kWh pack, we're talking 2 hours before recharging. Then factor in the fact that commutes are nearly always less than a hour, while annual camping trips are almost always further than 2 hrs. HD pickups may be a niche where EVs application doesn't work so well.
affordable probably depends on how much it is used. Tesla Semi rolling every day is supposed to be very low cost compared to diesel. MH for a few weekends a year and two weeks in the summer may not be practical. Full time with lots of miles could start to make economic sense. Might make better sense as a rental that gets more miles.

Hard to tell until we hear comments on the Semi after it rolls for a year and see what is said.


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wanderingaimlessly

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Posted: 03/01/21 07:56pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

For those of you that want to pull a trailer with your EV, Some trailer maker will outfit a toyhauler type trailer with a generator for when you are camping, that will also have an umbilical to charge the truck while going down the road, And those small engines, and industrial units don't have to meet all the enviro-whacko rules that auto's and light trucks do, so you will likely see the pollution actually get worse in some cases, although they will be a small percentage of the total number of vehicles out there, and you can still pat yourself on the back for saving the world.

time2roll

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Posted: 03/01/21 08:06pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

wanderingaimlessly wrote:

For those of you that want to pull a trailer with your EV, Some trailer maker will outfit a toyhauler type trailer with a generator for when you are camping, that will also have an umbilical to charge the truck while going down the road, And those small engines, and industrial units don't have to meet all the enviro-whacko rules that auto's and light trucks do, so you will likely see the pollution actually get worse in some cases, although they will be a small percentage of the total number of vehicles out there, and you can still pat yourself on the back for saving the world.
Or go with a battery in the trailer to supplement power and recapture braking effort. Battery of course would extend your range assuming you can plug it in to start with a full charge.

https://newatlas.com/outdoors/ozx-self-powered-camper-trailer/

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