Rising fuel, will it be any different this time?

[John_Joey]

When oil hit $120/barrel pushing gas to $5/gallon it really dropped RV prices and took a big bite out of my snowbirding budget. No longer foot lose and fancy free and see where the wind pushed me.

About two weeks ago I was walking a RV park and saw a used 5’ver for $120k. Could not believe it. To me that was crazy, maybe not to others.

So how many out there think this time will be any different then the last RV crash and why. What is true for RV’s should also hold true for home value, just will take more time since they are needs vs wants. Home value is crazy high also IMO.

[MARKW8]

RetiredRealtorRick wrote:
Seems like 'we're' preventing any and all oil production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. For the love of Pete, it's ONLY a 19.8 million acre site but 'we' oppose drilling on just 2000 acres (about 1/100 of one percent of the Refuge)... that's 1/100th OF 1%.

The US hasn't opened a new refinery since 1975 and about 36 have been forced to close since 1980 due to too many rules and regulations.

Oh yes, and Covid is certainly to blame for just about everything (I ran out of Cheerios this morning -- I blame Covid).

:S

I just googled us refineries. Since 1980 it shows 11 refineries coming online.
Mark

[roostonu]

I was trying to sell a diesel truck in 08 and I watched the blue book go down $1000 a month. It took me 6 months to sell it and then diesel prices started dropping and the month after I sold it the KBB went up $1000.

I recently bought a used RAM (got an excellent deal from Private Party) and did my search through Autotrader. I was searching 2010-2012 3500 diesel RAMs and have kept the search live so I get emails almost daily of new listings within my search or new prices of older listings. In less than a week, the same trucks that were listing at $43-$44k are now listing as "reduced" at $35-$36k. I predict the market will be flooded with used diesel trucks very soon.

[Dog_Trainer]

I see 2 major changes that will affect RV travel going forward.
Now that Covid seems much less of a factor. I think the younger crowd will go back to seeking hotels. motels .B&B etc... they have found out that traveling and setting up an RV takes a little more time effort and skills. I think there will be a glut of entry level to moderate level RVs for sale.
the second change I see is for those who have underestimated the cost of being on the road both full and part time. not having enough funds to pursue a comfortable lifestyle on the road takes the fun out of traveling. I think we are fast retuning to a buyers market.

[georgelesley]

schlep1967 wrote:

Campinghoss@51 wrote:
When we sold our diesel motor home and went back to a fiver, I had several offers to sell my Fiesta hatchback since it was set up for the tow vehicle. I almost did a couple of times since used car prices are so high. BUT I didn't------now I have to figure out how to mount my fiver hitch on the roof without scratching the paint. The Fiesta gets 40 mpg. It will pull it right??:B

It will pull it downhill and stop it going uphill. Plan your trip carefully....

that is the best advice I have seen in a long time!! LOL

[ferndaleflyer]

My 3 oil wells are old. One was drilled in 1898 and is still producing. The other 2 were drilled right after WW 2 so they are old and pretty predictable. The gas ones are all over 15 years old and combined are also pretty consistent. As far as Feb being a short month, we will see as I haven't got that yet.

I don't depend on Social Security or Medicare but it was funny how they bragged about how large the increase in SS was then they took half of the increase for Medicare.

Leaving in the morning for Myrtle Beach for a week---supposed to be 24 on Sat night. Imagine that.

[monkey44]

We're with you Matt ... comfortable retirement keeps getting bigger nibbles at it every year, slightly bigger nibble than the COLA is supposed to compensate for but never quite gets there.

When inflation - a word with an extremely variable definition - says its two or three percent this year. My truck insurance goes up twenty percent, I find it impossible to believe her response, "It's inflation, everything is going up.' When does a two percent COLA equal a twenty percent increase in premium? Beats me, but then again we retired folks use the original old style math - simple add and subtract, multiply and divide. 😞

[Matt_Colie]

Well, I don't know about the rest of you, but we are retirees on a very fixed income. In actual fact, with the increase in Prices (that include Sales Taxes), Property Taxes and Medicare not nearly covered by the increase in Social Security, I am distressed by what my old Street Atlas tells me we can afford this year.

I had worked hard for a good retirement, but the abrogation eliminated the results of 28 Years (after the kids were on their own) worth of scrimping and saving and no real vacations and no big toys. If you think I am a little bitter about the whole thing, you are wrong. NO little there.

Matt

[dedmiston]

Boon Docker wrote:
{snip}

Henny-Penny said to Cocky-Locky...... :B

I deleted the post that you quoted, so I had to snip it out of yours too.

Funny stuff though. Some days it feels like the sky actually is falling.

[Boon_Docker]

{snip}

Henny-Penny said to Cocky-Locky...... :B

[ktmrfs]

ferndaleflyer wrote:
I have several oil and gas leases. Explain to me why my oil production check for 3 wells went down $160 last check while the pump price is going up way faster than it should. Somewhere down the line someone is making a killing.

probably depends on where the wells are and if flow is changing. On our wells in the Bakken field in ND royalty checks compare to a year ago are up by 16x. But that 16x increase is actually about double what it was when oil as in the $80 range, when oil tanked they basically barely pumped, since extraction costs were more than oil was selling for. Just pumped enough to keep the lease active.

Reality is that no much how we all would like rock bottom oil prices, New production areas in the U.S. have much higher extraction costs that older wells and many other international sources. And fracking wells drop of quickly, so wildly fluctuating oil prices aren't good, nor are big drops in oil prices.

[John_Joey]

wapiticountry wrote:
People predicting the future are like a stopped clock, once in a while they will be right. The rest of the time, not very accurate.

You don’t have to be right every time. Just more often then not. To be good in hockey you need to be good at knowing where the puck will be, not where it was. Not everyone is good at hockey, and that’s OK. Makes not being right every time about the puck still highly sought after players.

[wapiticountry]

People predicting the future are like a stopped clock, once in a while they will be right. The rest of the time, not very accurate.

[toedtoes]

dedmiston wrote:

agesilaus wrote:
Well gas not diesel is $7 a gallon in Cali

Fake news. It’s bad, but not that bad.

San Luis Obispo is the worst in the state except for remote spots like Death Valley. It’s about $6/gal in SLO.

Not that I’m defending the insanity, but the rumors aren’t true (yet).

It's still under $5.00 in the valley.

[time2roll]

ferndaleflyer wrote:
I have several oil and gas leases. Explain to me why my oil production check for 3 wells went down $160 last check while the pump price is going up way faster than it should. Somewhere down the line someone is making a killing.

February was a shorter month? Maintenance shut down? Transportation fees increase?

I would think the contract holder would actually know how to calculate the changes or read the production statement.

[schlep1967]

Campinghoss@51 wrote:
When we sold our diesel motor home and went back to a fiver, I had several offers to sell my Fiesta hatchback since it was set up for the tow vehicle. I almost did a couple of times since used car prices are so high. BUT I didn't------now I have to figure out how to mount my fiver hitch on the roof without scratching the paint. The Fiesta gets 40 mpg. It will pull it right??:B

It will pull it downhill and stop it going uphill. Plan your trip carefully....