Is the diesel going to end up going the way of the dinosaur?

[4x4ord]

Tougher emission standards

With the new DI turbocharged gasoline engine technology yielding incredible power and efficiency working in favor of the gasoline engine's future and the difficulties the diesel faces in meeting tougher emission standards I am beginning to wonder whether the diesel will survive.

[deltabravo]

wildtoad wrote:
And the real question might be if the diesel goes away what does that do for the 40+ ft motor homes and really huge 5th wheels?

And the thousands of over the road trucks (big rigs like Mack, Peterbuilt, KW, etc...) And railroad locomotives....

[4x4ord]

Terryallan wrote:

Lynnmor wrote:

4x4ord wrote:
Torque has little to do with it. Gears or electric motors can produce torque. Diesel engines power big equipment because they have traditionally been more fuel efficient than gasoline engines.

People like to talk about their large torque numbers, but horsepower is the measure of work that an engine can do.

Actually, according to my professors. Torque is the work a engine does. HP is how fast / well it can do it.

I agree with your professor.....ie HP is a more meaningful number as far as providing an indication as to an engine's ability to get a job done.

[Searching_Ut]

Diesel emissions will improve to meet requirements, or requirements will be adjusted to allow diesels to be utilized. There were lots of missteps along the way with gasoline engines as well, and they have been regulated with emission standards far longer.

As for the future, it's hard to predict. In the 1800's, it was predicted that solar energy would replace coal fired generation by 1900. Predictions were based on both photovoltaic solar cells which were around 1 percent efficiency at the time, and power generation using mirrors to direct the energy to steam generators. Sound familiar.

Unfortunately, I don't see any battery breakthroughs out there currently that show promise for vehicles requiring any significant power such as RV's, semi trucks etc. Batteries are an area where the hype is really getting out there in regards to service life etc. For decades, the standard for useable cycle life used to be 80 percent or more of original battery capacity. Now there isn't really any standard. In looking over the data for the Chevy Bolt for instance, it appears they use 60 percent of original capacity when talking cycle life. In well over 100 years battery improvements have been a slow incremental process.

Time will tell, but my thoughts are that something more along the lines of fuel cells will be the replacement for Diesel if and when diesel has to be replaced.

[ktmrfs]

spoon059 wrote:

rhagfo wrote:

:h
I will say I haven't doubled checked but in Oregon diesels over 8,500# GVWR are emissions testing exempt.

Diesels in Maryland are exempt too.

likely exempt from periodic testing, but not likely exempt from EPA new vehicle emissions requirements. that's federal or california law.

[yamerhammer1]

I retired in 2012 after 35 years with a major oil company in the pipeline business. My last job was increasing our output of diesel on our products line that pumped gasoline, jet fuel & diesel. I retired before it was completed. I have talked to some of my coworkers and yes they are pumping almost twice as much diesel as before up the east coast. The company must know something to spend millions on that project.

[spoon059]

ktmrfs wrote:


exempt from testing for annual registration but NOT exempt from EPA requirements when sold as new vehicle. they must meet CA emission requirements when sold as a new vehicle.

BTW not all of oregon has emissions testing. portland area, medford IIRC and maybe a few other areas. but most areas of the state are exempt from annual testing.

Oh, gotcha. Misunderstood.

[spoon059]

rhagfo wrote:

:h
I will say I haven't doubled checked but in Oregon diesels over 8,500# GVWR are emissions testing exempt.

Diesels in Maryland are exempt too.

[Terryallan]

Lynnmor wrote:

4x4ord wrote:
Torque has little to do with it. Gears or electric motors can produce torque. Diesel engines power big equipment because they have traditionally been more fuel efficient than gasoline engines.

People like to talk about their large torque numbers, but horsepower is the measure of work that an engine can do.

Actually, according to my professors. Torque is the work a engine does. HP is how fast / well it can do it.

[ktmrfs]

rhagfo wrote:

ktmrfs wrote:
I don't expect much relaxaction in an epa emissions changes under new adminstration. Why?? well, CA can set their own stds that must be met and EPA can't over rule them. And there are now multiple states that require CA emission stds. That is the majority or close to majority of all vehicles sold in the U.S. the states that require CA emissions are CA, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.

So don't expect mfg to change much. as long as the must meet CA emissions for vehicles in these states they will do it or close for almost all vehicles. As an example, my 2015 duramax was delivered originally to an Idaho dealer, which doesn't require CA stds. But guess what it did and that's where my local dealer got the truck from and since oregon requires CA stds, no problem.

:h
I will say I haven't doubled checked but in Oregon diesels over 8,500# GVWR are emissions testing exempt.

exempt from testing for re-registration every 4 or 8 years but NOT exempt from EPA requirements when sold as new vehicle. they must meet CA emission requirements when sold as a new vehicle.

BTW not all of oregon has emissions testing. portland area, medford IIRC and maybe a few other areas. but most areas of the state are exempt from annual testing.

[kw_00]

What we need to recall is that diesel gets its power from turbo charging, without it well it's a dog. Remember the old diesels prior turbo? Yep slow, very reliable and they did have some power but the intro to the turbo made all the difference in my opinion. Even in the new trucks, when u lose the turbo..it's a slow go. I don't think diesels are going anywhere, they are good power plants. Yes I see stricter emissions which makes it harder overall to repair. At my job, our new rescue units are going gas. We have always used Ford units. But with the repair/replacement of the engine wreaks havoc on the overall budget. We are using GM 6.0 units, yes a bit doggy in the 1 ton serie compared to the 3/4 ton unit, but they get the job done. GM derates the power from 360 horse to I think 301 in the 1 ton dually u it's, and they are now running natural gas. Time will tell how they hold up in ambulance use but so far several have made it past 100k hard miles without any issues other then alternators. Anyway just my take, I don't see deisel engines leaving the truck scene anytime soon.

[Passin_Thru]

You need to go to S America. Just about every vehicle is diesel. Doubt if they are going anywhere soon. Brazil makes a Ford Ranger diesel. All Toyotas had diesel and so did Range Rovers. I love it when someone tells me they get 20 MPG. I'll bet you it gets 9.5 MPG pulling my 31 ft Arctic Fox from VA to Erie Pa and back. My 2006 Chevy Duramax get 19 running from VA to Okla empty but only 17 around N Va. You are welcome to come hook on it.

[rhagfo]

ktmrfs wrote:
I don't expect much relaxaction in an epa emissions changes under new adminstration. Why?? well, CA can set their own stds that must be met and EPA can't over rule them. And there are now multiple states that require CA emission stds. That is the majority or close to majority of all vehicles sold in the U.S. the states that require CA emissions are CA, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.

So don't expect mfg to change much. as long as the must meet CA emissions for vehicles in these states they will do it or close for almost all vehicles. As an example, my 2015 duramax was delivered originally to an Idaho dealer, which doesn't require CA stds. But guess what it did and that's where my local dealer got the truck from and since oregon requires CA stds, no problem.

:h
I will say I haven't doubled checked but in Oregon diesels over 8,500# GVWR are emissions testing exempt.

[4x4ord]

Turtle n Peeps wrote:

Diesel has about 12% more energy, by volume, than gasoline. By unit weight gasoline actually contains more energy than diesel does. When you consider the lost diesel fuel burnt in the DPF and the cost of eurea the diesel is loosing its advantage. Gasoline engines, on the other hand, are gaining efficiency with technology such as DI and higher cylinder pressures.

Got new for you. In 1937 HP for HP diesels got about 30% better fuel economy than a gasoline engine. In 2017 HP for HP, diesels get about 30% better fuel economy. Those are facts.

The 1969 gas truck my dad towed with got 9 to 10 MPG. Towing the exact same trailer I get 12 to 13 MPG with my 93 diesel. Would you look at that! 30% difference! My neighbor tows a TT about the same size and weight as I have with his new Ford EB gas truck. He gets 9 to 10 MPG towing. When I tow with my 06 diesel truck I get 12 to 13 MPG. There's that magic 30% number again! :B

That's why the EB people hearts sank after they got their mileage figures back after towing their trailers for the first time.

Here are some BSFC numbers for the two:

Diesel engine= .28- .36

injected gas= .40- .48

Carb gas= .48- .60

Here is a really good article. Diesel vs gasoline. Please note the power differences between gas and diesel even if the BSFC figures were the same.

More than half of the cars in Europe are diesel.
Diesel is going to be around for a long time.

BTW, look at the happen to the Feds climate change web page hours after the new admin took office. :E

I've had diesel pickups since 1993. My 93 GMC got 24 mpg on the highway. (Imperial gal) My new Ford gets 20 mpg. Additionally it uses def. Our '92 Honda Accord got 40 mpg (imp). Our 2017 Honda Civic is a bigger car and it gets over 50 mpg.

[John___Angela]

ktmrfs wrote:
I don't expect much relaxaction in an epa emissions changes under new adminstration. Why?? well, CA can set their own stds that must be met and EPA can't over rule them. And there are now multiple states that require CA emission stds. That is the majority or close to majority of all vehicles sold in the U.S. the states that require CA emissions are CA, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.

So don't expect mfg to change much. as long as the must meet CA emissions for vehicles in these states they will do it or close for almost all vehicles. As an example, my 2015 duramax was delivered originally to an Idaho dealer, which doesn't require CA stds. But guess what it did and that's where my local dealer got the truck from and since oregon requires CA stds, no problem.

Which is a good thing. The less polluting technology also needs to be in continuous development as standards all over the world are tightening. One poster mentioned that half of the vehicles in europe are diesel, which I can attest to. However many of those vehicles wont be able to drive in many of the larger cities in europe within two to three years. Because of this the price of used diesel vehicles in some european countries is dropping like a stone right now and as a result new diesel vehicles are falling out of favour. If North American manufacturers want to sell outside of the North America continent they will have to keep up with the technology. This will include Diesel, Gas and of course Electric vehicles. Up till two years ago we had been driving exclusively european diesel cars which have served us well. But none of the advantages they had 12 to 14 years ago when we bought them have superseded by Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV's). Obviously diesel has years of heavy haul usage ahead of it but passeneger car and light truck diesel sales will see a continuous decline in the next 10 years.

[ktmrfs]

I don't expect much relaxaction in an epa emissions changes under new adminstration. Why?? well, CA can set their own stds that must be met and EPA can't over rule them. And there are now multiple states that require CA emission stds. That is the majority or close to majority of all vehicles sold in the U.S. the states that require CA emissions are CA, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.

So don't expect mfg to change much. as long as the must meet CA emissions for vehicles in these states they will do it or close for almost all vehicles. As an example, my 2015 duramax was delivered originally to an Idaho dealer, which doesn't require CA stds. But guess what it did and that's where my local dealer got the truck from and since oregon requires CA stds, no problem.